The adoption of the EU land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) regulation ensures that for the first time afforestation in Europe will contribute toward the achievement of European Union (EU) climate change commitments under the Paris Agreement. However, increased afforestation in Europe could have unintended environmental trade-offs that may hamper the achievement of EU Water Framework Directive targets. While much of the previous forestry research has focused on the potential negative impacts of afforestation and harvesting processes on water quality at a single point in time, this study applies an ordered probit model to investigate the impact of afforestation and forest cover (in a predominantly agricultural setting) on water quality over a 20-year period. In addition, we present an analysis of a simulated increase in afforestation and forest cover, and a corresponding decrease in agriculture area, on water quality. The results show an increase in water quality in 2.62% of cases. Both increased forest cover and the substitution of livestock have a positive impact on water quality outcomes. Despite the negative impacts associated with the process of afforestation, the long term positives associated with forest cover over the course of a forest rotation, make it a preferable land use option in terms of water quality relative to more seasonal agricultural land uses. Given the expected increase in afforestation in line with national policy, Ireland offers a unique opportunity to observe the outcomes of a large scale afforestation programme in a rural setting. The findings of this paper offer a deeper insight into the impacts of afforestation and forest cover over a meaningful time frame that is not available in site specific studies and studies focused on individual management interventions.

中文翻译：

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林业作为土地利用对水质结果的影响：综合分析

欧盟土地利用、土地利用变化和林业 (LULUCF) 法规的采用确保欧洲的植树造林将首次有助于实现欧盟 (EU) 在《巴黎协定》下的气候变化承诺。然而，欧洲植树造林的增加可能会产生意想不到的环境权衡，这可能会阻碍欧盟水框架指令目标的实现。虽然以前的许多林业研究都集中在单一时间点造林和采伐过程对水质的潜在负面影响，但本研究应用有序概率模型来调查造林和森林覆盖的影响（在一个以农业为主的地区）。设置）在 20 年期间的水质。此外，我们对水质的模拟造林和森林覆盖增加以及农业面积相应减少进行了分析。结果显示，在 2.62% 的情况下，水质有所提高。森林覆盖的增加和牲畜的替代都对水质结果产生了积极的影响。尽管植树造林过程会产生负面影响，但与森林轮作过程中森林覆盖率相关的长期积极影响，使其成为相对于季节性农田使用的水质而言更可取的土地使用选择。鉴于根据国家政策预计会增加植树造林，爱尔兰提供了一个独特的机会来观察农村环境中大规模植树造林计划的结果。