Increased biomass for energy production features as a key part of the transition to a competitive low-carbon EU energy system. Not all energy strategies however will lead to reduced emissions, and extensive biomass production inherently compete with, e.g., agricultural systems for key natural resources like water and land. This paper investigates the ramifications of three potential energy pathways for Europe developed by the H2020 REEEM project, ambitiously aimed at reducing CO₂ emissions to 80–95% compared to 1990, using different mixes of biomass. Their environmental footprint for 2015–2050 in terms of land-use-change emissions and water consumption are confronted with near-term climate change projections. Finally, potential implications for the implementation and robustness of future European energy strategies are discussed, highlighting in particular the role of uncertainties in estimating the performance of biomass systems.

增加生物质用于能源生产是向竞争性低碳欧盟能源系统过渡的关键部分。但是，并非所有的能源策略都会减少排放，大量的生物质生产必然会与例如农业系统争夺水和土地等关键自然资源。本文研究了由H2020 REEEM项目开发的，旨在减少CO _2的欧洲三种潜在能源途径的后果。使用不同比例的生物质，与1990年相比，排放量降低到80-95％。就其土地利用变化的排放量和水的消费量而言，它们在2015-2050年的环境足迹面临着近期的气候变化预测。最后，讨论了对未来欧洲能源战略的实施和稳健性的潜在影响，特别强调了不确定性在评估生物质系统性能方面的作用。