This study draws on a new data set of vital rates and real wages to explore short-term and long-term behavior of the preventive and positive checks in a major economy of premodern mainland Europe. Four results stand out. First, the preventive check was fairly stable throughout the period 1730–1870; its magnitude of 0.2 to 0.35 was comparable with that of England, northern and central Italy, and Sweden. Second, the eighteenth century was characterized by Malthusian disequilibrium in that there was no long-term relationship between the crude death rate and the real wage, whereas the crude death rate’s instantaneous response to income changes was a substantial –0.4. Third, the short-term positive check may have weakened over the eighteenth century and largely disappeared in the 1810s. The diversification of food risk resulting from the spread of potato cultivation, market integration, and the development of the nonagricultural sectors are potential explanations of the demise and disappearance of the positive check. Fourth, between the 1810s and the 1860s, vital rates and the real wage were stationary, which is consistent with a post-Malthusian regime in which technological progress depended on population size. The 1810s marked the time when Germany transited from a Malthusian regime in disequilibrium to the post-Malthusian era.

中文翻译：

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从马尔萨斯失衡到后马尔萨斯时代：德国1730-1870年预防性检查和积极检查的演变。

这项研究使用了新的生命率和实际工资数据集，以探讨欧洲前现代大陆主要经济体中预防性检查和积极检查的短期和长期行为。四个结果脱颖而出。首先，在1730年至1870年期间，预防性检查相当稳定。其幅度为0.2到0.35，可与英国，意大利北部和中部以及瑞典相媲美。其次，十八世纪的特征是马尔萨斯失衡，即粗死亡率和实际工资之间没有长期关系，而粗死亡率对收入变化的瞬时响应是可观的–0.4。第三，短期的积极检查可能在18世纪减弱了，并在1810年代基本消失了。马铃薯种植的传播，市场一体化和非农业部门的发展导致的食品风险多样化，是对正向检验消亡的潜在解释。第四，在1810年代和1860年代之间，生命率和实际工资是固定的，这与后马尔萨斯政权一致，在该政权下，技术进步取决于人口规模。1810年代标志着德国从不平衡状态的马尔萨斯政权过渡到后马尔萨斯时代的时代。这与后马尔萨斯政权一致，后者的技术进步取决于人口规模。1810年代标志着德国从不平衡状态的马尔萨斯政权过渡到后马尔萨斯时代的时代。这与后马尔萨斯政权一致，后者的技术进步取决于人口规模。1810年代标志着德国从不平衡状态的马尔萨斯政权过渡到后马尔萨斯时代的时代。