Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens in outbreaks of infectious disease provides the potential to reconstruct transmission pathways and enhance the information contained in conventional epidemiological data. In recent years, there have been numerous new methods and models developed to exploit such high-resolution genetic data. However, corresponding methods for model assessment have been largely overlooked. In this article, we develop both new modelling methods and new model assessment methods, specifically by building on the work of Worby et al. Although the methods are generic in nature, we focus specifically on nosocomial pathogens and analyze a dataset collected during an outbreak of MRSA in a hospital setting.

中文翻译：

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使用全基因组序列数据对医院病原体进行建模、贝叶斯推理和模型评估。

传染病暴发中病原体的全基因组测序提供了重建传播途径和增强传统流行病学数据中包含的信息的潜力。近年来，已经开发了许多新的方法和模型来利用这种高分辨率的遗传数据。然而，相应的模型评估方法在很大程度上被忽视了。在本文中，我们开发了新的建模方法和新的模型评估方法，特别是在 Worby 等人的工作基础上。尽管这些方法本质上是通用的，但我们特别关注医院病原体并分析在医院环境中 MRSA 爆发期间收集的数据集。