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Atmospheric dispersion modelling of bioaerosols that are pathogenic to humans and livestock - A review to inform risk assessment studies.
Microbial Risk Analysis ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2015-07-26 , DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2015.07.002
J P G Van Leuken 1, 2 , A N Swart 1 , A H Havelaar 1, 2, 3 , A Van Pul 4 , W Van der Hoek 1 , D Heederik 2
Affiliation  

In this review we discuss studies that applied atmospheric dispersion models (ADM) to bioaerosols that are pathogenic to humans and livestock in the context of risk assessment studies. Traditionally, ADMs have been developed to describe the atmospheric transport of chemical pollutants, radioactive matter, dust, and particulate matter. However, they have also enabled researchers to simulate bioaerosol dispersion.

To inform risk assessment, the aims of this review were fourfold, namely (1) to describe the most important physical processes related to ADMs and pathogen transport, (2) to discuss studies that focused on the application of ADMs to pathogenic bioaerosols, (3) to discuss emission and inactivation rate parameterisations, and (4) to discuss methods for conversion of concentrations to infection probabilities (concerning quantitative microbial risk assessment).

The studies included human, livestock, and industrial sources. Important factors for dispersion included wind speed, atmospheric stability, topographic effects, and deposition. Inactivation was mainly governed by humidity, temperature, and ultraviolet radiation.

A majority of the reviewed studies, however, lacked quantitative analyses and application of full quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRA). Qualitative conclusions based on geographical dispersion maps and threshold doses were encountered frequently. Thus, to improve risk assessment for future outbreaks and releases, we recommended determining well-quantified emission and inactivation rates and applying dosimetry and dose–response models to estimate infection probabilities in the population at risk.



中文翻译:

对人类和牲畜致病的生物气溶胶的大气弥散建模-为风险评估研究提供信息的审查。

在这篇综述中,我们讨论了在风险评估研究的背景下,将大气扩散模型(ADM)应用于对人和牲畜具有致病性的生物气溶胶的研究。传统上,已经开发了ADM以描述大气中化学污染物,放射性物质,粉尘和颗粒物的运输。但是,它们还使研究人员能够模拟生物气溶胶的扩散。

为了提供风险评估信息,本次审查的目的有四个方面,即(1)描述与ADM和病原体运输有关的最重要的物理过程,(2)讨论侧重于将ADM应用于病原性生物气溶胶的研究,(3 )讨论排放和灭活速率的参数设置,以及(4)讨论将浓度转换为感染可能性的方法(关于定量微生物风险评估)。

这些研究包括人类,牲畜和工业资源。散布的重要因素包括风速,大气稳定性,地形影响和沉积。灭活主要受湿度,温度和紫外线辐射的控制。

但是,大多数已审查的研究缺乏定量分析和完整的定量微生物风险评估(QMRA)应用。经常会遇到基于地理分布图和阈值剂量的定性结论。因此,为了改善对未来爆发和释放的风险评估,我们建议确定量化良好的排放和灭活率,并应用剂量学和剂量反应模型来估计高危人群的感染可能性。

更新日期:2015-07-26
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