In this paper, the life span of hydro and nuclear energy generations and the relationship between hydro and nuclear energy generations, environmental pollution, and economic growth were investigated for Japan covering the period of 1960–2018 by employing the Bathtub‐Weibull curve and Markov switching‐vector error correcting (MSVEC) method, respectively. According to the Bathtub‐Weibull curve analysis, a rising failure rate for nuclear energy was found, indicating that the life of nuclear energy has expired, but a decreasing failure rate for hydroelectric energy has been detected. Then two different MSVEC models were used. The MSVEC method, unlike traditional approaches, determines the relationship between variables under different regimes. The results of MSVEC methods indicate three important points. First, regime‐dependent asymmetry and regime changes are crucial for policy recommendations. Second, the shocks to hydropower and nuclear energy generations cause temporary deviations from the long‐run growth path in both regimes. Lastly, the increase in hydropower generation leads to a decrease in environmental pollution and an increase in GDP, and an increase in nuclear power generation increases pollution and growth in both regimes.

中文翻译：

---

灾难前后的环境污染，水电和核能发电：Bathtub-Weibull曲线和MS-VECM方法

本文利用Bathtub-Weibull曲线和Markov切换方法研究了1960-2018年日本水力和核能发电的寿命以及水力和核能发电，环境污染与经济增长之间的关系。 -矢量纠错（MSVEC）方法。根据Bathtub-Weibull曲线分析，发现核能的故障率上升，这表明核能的寿命已经到期，但是水电的故障率却下降了。然后使用了两个不同的MSVEC模型。与传统方法不同，MSVEC方法确定不同制度下变量之间的关系。MSVEC方法的结果表明了三个重点。第一，依赖政权的不对称和政权变更对于政策建议至关重要。其次，对水电和核能发电的冲击导致这两种体制的长期增长路径暂时偏离。最后，水力发电量的增加导致环境污染的减少和国内生产总值的增加，而核能发电量的增加使两种制度的污染和增长都增加。