Traditional compartmental models such as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) assume that the epidemic transmits in a homogeneous population, but the real contact patterns in epidemics are heterogeneous. Employing a more realistic model that considers heterogeneous contact is consequently necessary. Here, we use a contact network to reconstruct unprotected, protected contact, and airborne spread to simulate the two-stages outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) on the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship. We employ Bayesian inference and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to estimate the model parameters and quantify the uncertainties by the ensemble simulation technique. During the early epidemic with intensive social contacts, the results reveal that the average transmissibility $t$ was 0.026 and the basic reproductive number $R_0$ was 6.94, triple that in the WHO report, indicating that all people would be infected in one month. The $t$ and $R_0$ decreased to 0.0007 and 0.2 when quarantine was implemented. The reconstruction suggests that diluting the airborne virus concentration in closed settings is useful in addition to isolation, and high-risk susceptible should follow rigorous prevention measures in case exposed. This study can provide useful implications for control and prevention measures for the other cruise ships and closed settings.

传统的分区模型，如 SIR（易感、感染、恢复）假设流行病在同质人群中传播，但流行病中的真实接触模式是异质的。因此，有必要采用考虑异质接触的更现实的模型。在这里，我们使用接触网络重建无保护接触、受保护接触和空气传播，以模拟 COVID-19（冠状病毒病 2019）在“钻石公主”号游轮上的两阶段爆发。我们采用贝叶斯推理和 Metropolis-Hastings 抽样来估计模型参数并通过集合模拟技术量化不确定性。在社会接触密集的早期流行期间，结果显示平均传播率$吨$为 0.026，基本再生数$R_0$是6.94，是WHO报告的三倍，说明一个月内所有人都会被感染。这$吨$和$R_0$实施检疫后分别降至 0.0007 和 0.2。重建表明，除了隔离外，在封闭环境中稀释空气传播的病毒浓度是有用的，高危易感者应采取严格的预防措施以防暴露。这项研究可以为其他游轮和封闭环境的控制和预防措施提供有用的启示。