In this paper, a novel systematic and integrated methodology to assess gas supply reliability is proposed based on the Monte Carlo method, statistical analysis, mathematical-probabilistic analysis, and hydraulic simulation. The method proposed has two stages. In the first stage, typical scenarios are determined. In the second stage, hydraulic simulation is conducted to calculate the flow rate in each typical scenario. The result of the gas pipeline system calculated is the average gas supply reliability in each typical scenario. To verify the feasibility, the method proposed is applied for a real natural gas pipelines network system. The comparison of the results calculated and the actual gas supply reliability based on the filed data in the evaluation period suggests the assessment results of the method proposed agree well with the filed data. Besides, the effect of different components on gas supply reliability is investigated, and the most critical component is identified. For example, the 48th unit is the most critical component for the SH terminal station, while the 119th typical scenario results in the most severe consequence which causes the loss of 175.61 × 10⁴ m³ gas when the 119th scenario happens. This paper provides a set of scientific and reasonable gas supply reliability indexes which can evaluate the gas supply reliability from two dimensions of quantity and time.

中文翻译：

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预测天然气管道系统供气可靠性的新方法

在本文中，基于蒙特卡洛方法，统计分析，数学概率分析和水力模拟，提出了一种新颖的系统和综合的方法来评估天然气供应的可靠性。所提出的方法有两个阶段。在第一阶段，确定典型方案。在第二阶段，进行水力模拟以计算每种典型情况下的流量。计算出的天然气管道系统的结果是每种典型情况下的平均天然气供应可靠性。为了验证可行性，将所提出的方法应用于实际的天然气管道网络系统。将计算结果与评估期内基于归档数据的实际气体供应可靠性进行比较，表明所提出方法的评估结果与归档数据非常吻合。此外，研究了不同组件对气体供应可靠性的影响，并确定了最关键的组件。例如，第48个单元是SH终端站的最关键组件，而第119个典型方案会导致最严重的后果，这导致损失175.61×10第119种情况发生时，天然气为⁴ m ³。本文提供了一套科学合理的供气可靠性指标，可以从数量和时间两个维度评估供气可靠性。