In northern temperate forests, ice storms are a common disturbance agent, though climate change may alter their occurrence patterns. Their impact on forest ecosystems is complex, as they influence both structure and processes. In 2014, an ice storm of high intensity and large spatial extent occurred in Slovenia, Central Europe, which enabled a detailed study of ice damage to individual trees across a broader spatial scale. Pre- and post-ice storm measurement data on 11 414 trees on 960 permanent plots were used to examine ice damage patterns on trees in the disturbed forest area (~8700 km²) to determine the predictors of ice damage to trees and to investigate the relative susceptibility of eight groups of tree species in mixed Central European forests. We used a novel approach to modelling ice-storm intensity across the region based on measured data on air temperature, precipitation amount and duration, precipitation intensity and wind speed. The ice storm damaged 31 percent of the analysed trees; high variability in the damage rate was observed across the disturbed area. For the tree species, a susceptibility to ice damage index (SI) ranging between 0 (no damage) and 1 (complete damage) was calculated based on terrestrial assessment of trees. Tree species differed significantly in susceptibility to ice damage: Abies alba (SI = 0.14) and Quercus sp. (SI = 0.11) were rather resistant; Picea abies, Fagus sylvatica and Acer sp. (SI = 0.23–0.28) were moderately to very susceptible; and Pinus sp. (SI = 0.62) was extremely susceptible to ice damage. Eight predictors and three interactions were included in an ordinal logistic regression model of tree damage: ice damage on trees depends mainly on ice-storm intensity, elevation and tree species, whilst tree dbh and social status, tree size and tree species diversity indices and slope were relatively less important. Our study illustrates the complexity of damage patterns on trees due to ice storms and the significance of ice-storm intensity and tree species as predictors when modelling ice damage on individual trees.

中文翻译：

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冰暴对中欧混合森林树木的损害：损害类型，预测因素和树木物种的敏感性

在北部温带森林中，冰暴是常见的干扰因素，尽管气候变化可能会改变其发生方式。它们对森林生态系统的影响是复杂的，因为它们影响结构和过程。2014年，中欧斯洛文尼亚发生了一场强度较大且空间分布较大的冰暴，这使得能够在更广泛的空间范围内对单个树木的冰害进行详细研究。利用960个永久性土地上11 414棵树的冰前和冰后风暴测量数据，来检查受干扰的森林地区（〜8700 km ²）以确定树木受冰害的预测因素，并调查中欧混合森林中八类树木的相对敏感性。我们根据气温，降水量和持续时间，降水强度和风速的实测数据，采用了一种新颖的方法对整个地区的冰暴强度进行建模。冰暴破坏了31％的被分析树木；整个受灾地区的破坏率变化很大。对于树木种类，根据对树木的陆地评估，计算出其对冰害指数（SI）的敏感性在0（无破坏）至1（完全破坏）之间。树木种类对冰害的敏感性差异显着：白冷杉（SI = 0.14）和栎sp。（SI = 0.11）颇有抵抗力；欧洲云杉，水青冈和宏碁SP。（SI = 0.23-0.28）为中等至极易感人群；和松属。（SI = 0.62）非常容易受到冰冻破坏。树木损害的序数逻辑回归模型包括八种预测因素和三种相互作用：树木的冰害主要取决于冰暴强度，海拔和树木种类，而树木的dbh和社会地位，树木大小和树木种类多样性指数以及坡度相对不太重要。我们的研究说明了由于冰暴造成的树木破坏模式的复杂性，以及在对单个树木进行冰害建模时，冰暴强度和树木种类作为预测因子的重要性。