The critically endangered Brazilian pine, also called araucaria, (Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) Kuntze) is a key species of the Araucaria moist forest (AMF, Mixed Ombrophilous Forest). Illegal timber extraction, agricultural conversion and severe degradation have reduced the AMF to only 13 per cent of its original cover, with climate change imposing additional challenges for cold adapted species such as araucaria. Previous studies have assessed climate change impacts on A. angustifolia, but have been limited by analysis constraints. Here, we used a machine learning technique to understand how land use and climate change might affect the distribution of A. angustifolia, and to evaluate the effectiveness of existing protected areas (PAs) to conserve this species. Our results demonstrated that despite the recent efforts to conserve the Atlantic Forest, conversion of natural habitats into forest plantation still occurs within araucaria’s distribution range. Our model predicted a drastic reduction in environmentally suitable areas for this species of up to 77 per cent in the coming decades. Also, the existing PAs show low efficacy to protect suitable areas in the future. Combined, these results suggest that A. angustifolia will be under great threat within the next few decades and the development of conservation strategies to save this species is essential. Ideally, the conservation programs should integrate in situ and on farm approaches, including forest management strategies. Although in situ strategies play an important role as gene banks, on-farm strategies can be used to promote the restoration and expansion of A. angustifolia populations in the areas predicted as suitable.

中文翻译：

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由于气候变化和栖息地丧失而导致极度濒危的南洋杉的现状和未来

极度濒危的巴西松树，也称为araucaria，（Araucaria angustifolia（Bertol。）Kuntze）是南洋杉湿润森林（AMF，混交林）的关键物种。非法采伐木材，农业转化和严重退化已使AMF降至其原始覆盖率的13％，而气候变化给适应性较弱的物种（如南芥属）提出了新的挑战。先前的研究评估了气候变化对A. angustifolia的影响，但受到分析限制的限制。在这里，我们使用了机器学习技术来了解土地利用和气候变化如何影响A. angustifolia的分布。，并评估现有保护区（PA）保护该物种的有效性。我们的结果表明，尽管最近为保护大西洋森林做出了努力，但自然栖息地向人工林的转化仍然发生在araucaria的分布范围内。我们的模型预测，在未来几十年中，该物种的环境适宜面积将急剧减少77％。而且，现有的PA未来在保护合适区域方面显示出较低的功效。结合起来，这些结果表明A. angustifolia在未来几十年内将受到巨大威胁，因此制定保护该物种的保护策略至关重要。理想情况下，保护计划应在原地和农场方法之间结合，包括森林管理策略。尽管原位策略在基因库中起着重要作用，但农场策略可用于促进预测的适宜区域中A. angustifolia种群的恢复和扩展。