The process of reproduction is a sensitive period for bird offspring, since they are exposed to environmental conditions for several weeks. Within the long reproductive period, adult birds do not only have to maintain their own body condition, they also have to ensure nutritional needs of their nestlings. In the worst case, if weather conditions are very harsh, breeding is not successful and fails. This suggests that weather conditions might be an important driver of breeding success. Here, we studied the effect of weather conditions (temperature and precipitation) on the survival of 350 nests of great tits Parus major during nestling period in six years (2010–2015). We used traditional generalized linear mixed model (binomial response variable) and a dedicated survival‐analysis program (MARK) to analyze the data. The two approaches allowed us to highlight and compare the effect of weather conditions on a fine (nestling survival) and coarse (nest fate) scale. Both methods showed that precipitation explained most of the variation in individual nestling and overall nest survival during the 15‐day nestling period. Heavy and persistent rainfall did not only lead to brood reduction, it ultimately also led to losses of the entire brood. Likely causes were the negative effects of precipitation on thermoregulation, food availability and predation risk. However, while reduced food availability most likely might have led to brood reduction through selective individual nestling death, predation might have resulted in total nest failures.

中文翻译：

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持续的强降雨导致雀形目鸟的繁殖减少和巢破坏

对于鸟类后代来说，繁殖过程是一个敏感的时期，因为它们会暴露在环境条件下数周。在漫长的繁殖期内，成年鸟类不仅必须保持自身的身体状况，还必须确保雏鸟的营养需求。在最坏的情况下，如果天气条件非常恶劣，育种将不会成功也将失败。这表明天气条件可能是育种成功的重要驱动力。在这里，我们研究了天气条件（温度和降水）对350只大山雀Parus major巢生存的影响在六年（2010-2015年）的雏鸟时期。我们使用传统的广义线性混合模型（二项式响应变量）和专用的生存分析程序（MARK）来分析数据。这两种方法使我们能够在精细（嵌套生存）和粗糙（巢状命运）尺度上突出并比较天气条件的影响。两种方法均表明，降水解释了15天雏鸟时期个体雏鸟和整体鸟的存活率的大部分变化。持续的强降雨不仅导致育雏减少，最终还导致整个育雏损失。可能的原因是降水对温度调节，食物供应和捕食风险的负面影响。然而，