Research suggests that the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath were associated with an increase in mental health problems, but there has been little research into potential protective factors. Ecological social capital is a plausible candidate given evidence of its protective status following natural disasters. Pre‐crisis area‐level estimates of generalized trust and sense of belonging were computed from the 2004 to 2006 waves of the Living in Wales survey (N = 43,473) for 413 neighbourhoods in Wales, using multilevel regression with post‐stratification, a technique for disaggregating survey data into small area estimates. Area estimates and the planned analysis were preregistered using Open Science Framework. Data (N = 180,462) from the Welsh Health Survey (2003–2015) were then used to model whether social capital was protective against depression in general and whether it moderated the increase in depression prevalence, associated with the financial crisis. Depression rates increased post‐crisis (odds ratio [OR] = 1.271), and trust was a protective factor against depression (OR = 0.775). The hypothesized interaction, however, was not significant (OR = 1.033), nor was sense of belonging (OR = 0.934) or its interaction with the crisis (OR = 1.024). Although ecological generalized trust appears to be a protective factor against depression, it did not buffer against the mental health impact of the financial crisis.

中文翻译：

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生态社会资本无法预测2008年金融危机后萧条加剧的地域差异

研究表明，2008年的金融危机及其后果与心理健康问题的增加有关，但对潜在保护因素的研究很少。生态社会资本是自然灾害后具有保护地位的有力证据。危机前对普遍信任和归属感的地区级估计是根据2004年至2006年威尔士生活调查（N  = 43,473）对威尔士413个居民区的估算得出的，采用了分层回归和事后分层的方法。将调查数据分解为小面积估算。面积估计和计划的分析已使用开放科学框架进行了预注册。数据（N 然后，根据“威尔士健康调查（2003-2015）”（= 180,462）对社会资本是否总体上可以预防抑郁症以及是否缓解了与金融危机相关的抑郁症患病率的增长进行建模。危机后抑郁症的患病率增加（优势比[OR] = 1.271），信任是预防抑郁症的保护因素（OR = 0.775）。但是，假设的交互作用不显着（OR = 1.033），归属感（OR = 0.934）或其与危机的交互作用（OR = 1.024）也不重要。尽管生态普遍信任似乎是预防抑郁的保护因素，但它并不能缓冲金融危机对心理健康的影响。