The analysis of the residual hazard existing after the emergency phases generated by the activation or reactivation of landslides is rarely taken into account in a proper manner. However, the assessment of landslide post-failure evolution should represent a key factor to control potential landslide reactivations and prevent new landslide-induced damages. This paper presents the results of a long-term field monitoring activity performed in the years after the emergency phase of the Montaguto (Italy) earthflow reactivation occurred in 2010 as well as the results of 2-D and 3-D numerical analyses aimed at interpreting the post-emergency landslide behaviour. The results of the numerical simulations, which agree well with the in situ monitoring data, allow to define a conceptual model of the earthflow behaviour that is related to the pore water pressure variations resulting from the drained or undrained processes occurring in the landslide body. The study proposed confirms a general reduction of the landslide activity, as well as allows to detect the factors that control the residual activity existing in a specific area of the landslide and to infer possible critical scenarios for landslide reactivations.

中文翻译：

---

通过现场监测和数值模拟评估大地流的故障后演变

很少以适当的方式考虑对滑坡激活或重新激活产生的紧急阶段之后存在的残余危害的分析。然而，滑坡破坏后演变的评估应该是控制潜在滑坡再激活和防止新滑坡引起的破坏的关键因素。本文介绍了在 2010 年发生 Montaguto（意大利）地流再激活紧急阶段后数年中进行的长期现场监测活动的结果，以及旨在解释的 2-D 和 3-D 数值分析的结果。紧急情况后的滑坡行为。数值模拟结果与原位监测数据吻合较好，允许定义与发生在滑坡体中的排水或不排水过程导致的孔隙水压力变化相关的土流行为的概念模型。拟议的研究证实了滑坡活动的普遍减少，并允许检测控制滑坡特定区域中存在的残余活动的因素，并推断滑坡重新激活的可能临界情景。