Abstract Visual risk assessment remains the primary means of gauging urban tree safety and is a key facet of storm preparation and response. While past research has investigated the reproducibility of risk assessment methodologies (i.e., precision), few, if any, studies truly address the accuracy of current inspection practices – especially with regard to the characterization of likelihood of failure. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew made landfall in the Southeastern United States as a lower-intensity tropical storm, impacting several urban sites where tree risk assessments had been conducted in the recent past. After the storm, 2069 trees on 5 properties were revisited to assess storm damage. The vast majority (93%) of trees survived Matthew intact, with 6% of the assessed population suffering partial (i.e., branch) failure and the remaining 1% experiencing whole-tree failure. Failure rates differed by species, with age, and given the presence of external defects. The presence of dead branches (P-value

中文翻译：

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专业人士可以衡量失败的可能性吗？- 热带风暴马修的见解

摘要 视觉风险评估仍然是衡量城市树木安全的主要手段，并且是风暴准备和响应的一个关键方面。虽然过去的研究调查了风险评估方法的可重复性（即精度），但很少有研究真正解决当前检查实践的准确性——尤其是关于故障可能性的表征。2016 年，飓风马修以强度较低的热带风暴的形式在美国东南部登陆，影响了最近进行树木风险评估的几个城市地点。风暴过后，重新访问了 5 处房产的 2069 棵树，以评估风暴造成的损失。绝大多数 (93%) 的树木在马修完好无损地存活下来，6% 的评估人口遭受部分（即，分支）失败，剩下的 1% 经历全树失败。故障率因物种、年龄和外部缺陷的存在而异。死枝的存在（P值