Antarctic lakes with perennial ice covers provide the opportunity to investigate in-lake processes without direct atmospheric interaction, and to study their ice-cover sensitivity to climate conditions. In this study, a numerical model – driven by radiative, atmospheric and turbulent heat fluxes from the water body beneath the ice cover – was implemented to investigate the impact of climate change on the ice covers from two Antarctic lakes: west lobe of Lake Bonney (WLB) and Crooked Lake. Model results agreed well with measured ice thicknesses of both lakes (WLB – RMSE= 0.11 m over 16 years of data; Crooked Lake – RMSE= 0.07 m over 1 year of data), and had acceptable results with measured ablation data at WLB (RMSE= 0.28 m over 6 years). The differences between measured and modeled ablation occurred because the model does not consider interannual variability of the ice optical properties and seasonal changes of the lake's thermal structure. Results indicate that projected summer air temperatures will increase the ice-cover annual melting in WLB by 2050, but that the ice cover will remain perennial through the end of this century. Contrarily, at Crooked Lake the ice cover becomes ephemeral most likely due to the increase in air temperatures.

中文翻译：

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模拟两个南极湖泊中现在和未来的冰盖

具有常年冰盖的南极湖泊提供了在没有直接大气相互作用的情况下研究湖内过程的机会，并研究了它们的冰盖对气候条件的敏感性。在这项研究中，实施了一个数值模型 - 由来自冰盖下方水体的辐射、大气和湍流热通量驱动 - 用于研究气候变化对两个南极湖泊冰盖的影响：邦尼湖 (Lake Bonney) 的西叶 ( WLB) 和弯曲的湖。模型结果与测量的两个湖泊的冰层厚度非常吻合（WLB – RMSE= 0.11 m，超过 16 年的数据；Crooked Lake – RMSE= 0.07 m，超过 1 年的数据），并且在 WLB 测量的消融数据（RMSE）具有可接受的结果= 0.28 m 超过 6 年）。由于模型没有考虑冰光学特性的年际变化和湖泊热结构的季节性变化，因此出现测量和模拟消融之间的差异。结果表明，到 2050 年，预计夏季气温将增加 WLB 的冰盖年融化量，但到本世纪末，冰盖仍将保持常年。相反，在弯曲湖，冰盖变得短暂，很可能是由于气温升高。