This research investigates two factors influencing the ability of tree-ring data to provide accurate 14C calibration information: the fitness and rigor of the statistical model used to combine the data into a curve; and the accuracy, precision and reproducibility of the component 14C data sets. It presents a new Bayesian spline method for calibration curve construction and tests it on extant and new Southern Hemisphere (SH) data sets (also examining their dendrochronology and pretreatment) for the post-Little Ice Age (LIA) interval AD 1500–1950. The new method of construction allows calculation of component data offsets, permitting identification of laboratory and geographic biases. Application of the new method to the 10 suitable SH 14C data sets suggests that individual offset ranges for component data sets appear to be in the region of ± 10 yr. Data sets with individual offsets larger than this need to be carefully assessed before selection for calibration purposes. We identify a potential geographical offset associated with the Southern Ocean (high latitude) Campbell Island data. We test the new methodology for wiggle-matching short tree-ring sequences and use an OxCal simulation to assess the likely precision obtainable by wiggle-matching in the post-LIA interval.

中文翻译：

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校准曲线的构建和组成对树木年轮放射性碳摆动匹配准确性和精度的影响，以公元 1500-1950 年的南半球大气数据集为例

本研究调查了影响年轮数据提供准确数据的能力的两个因素14C校准信息：用于将数据组合成曲线的统计模型的适合度和严谨性；以及组件的准确度、精密度和再现性14C 数据集。它提出了一种用于校准曲线构建的新贝叶斯样条方法，并在小冰河时代 (LIA) 间隔 AD 1500-1950 的现有和新南半球 (SH) 数据集上对其进行测试（同时检查它们的树木年代学和预处理）。新的构建方法允许计算组件数据偏移，允许识别实验室和地理偏差。新方法在10个适宜SH中的应用14C 数据集表明，组件数据集的各个偏移范围似乎在 ± 10 年的范围内。在选择用于校准目的之前，需要仔细评估具有大于此单个偏移量的数据集。我们确定了与南大洋（高纬度）坎贝尔岛数据相关的潜在地理偏移。我们测试了摆动匹配短年轮序列的新方法，并使用 OxCal 模拟来评估在 LIA 后间隔中通过摆动匹配可获得的可能精度。