Climate change causes shifts in the geographical distribution boundaries of many organisms. Modelling techniques predict the distribution of species by relating climatic and physical factors with species' presence records, including potential extinction areas and new potential areas of colonization, under predicted climatic scenarios. In this study, we initially explored which environmental variables most influenced the distribution of Pavona varians, a hermatypic coral from the equatorial Indian and the Pacific Ocean, which is categorized as ‘Least Concern’ by the UICN. The most influential variables were the minimum and maximum sea surface temperature, the diffuse water attenuation and the cloud cover. These variables were used to predict habitat suitability of P. varians under a current and a future (A1B IPPC) scenario using MaxEnt. Despite P. varians is an opportunistic species, with a well‐known resistance to environmental stress, the model predicted a massive decline in the suitability of its habitat in all areas by the year 2100. The information obtained by this study can be used to support the conservation decision making process to improve the preservation of the species.

中文翻译：

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驱动热带珊瑚Pavona varians分布的环境因素：气候变化情景下的预测

气候变化导致许多生物的地理分布边界发生变化。建模技术通过将气候和物理因素与物种的存在记录相关联，从而预测物种的分布，其中包括在预测的气候情况下的潜在灭绝区域和新的潜在定殖区域。在这项研究中，我们首先探讨了哪些环境变量最影响Pavona varians的分布，Pavona varians是来自赤道印度洋和太平洋的放血珊瑚，UICN将其归类为“最不关注”。影响最大的变量是最低和最高海面温度，扩散水衰减和云量。这些变量用于预测斑节对虾的生境适应性在当前和将来（A1B IPPC）场景下使用MaxEnt。尽管瓦氏疟原虫是一种机会性物种，对环境压力具有众所周知的抵抗力，但该模型预测到2100年所有地区其栖息地的适宜性将大大下降。本研究获得的信息可用于支持保护决策过程，以改善物种的保护。