When forecasting future outcomes, people tend to believe that the outcomes they want to happen are also likely to happen. Despite numerous attempts, few systematic factors have been identified that consistently and robustly reduce wishful thinking (WT) effects. Using elections and sporting event outcomes as contexts, three experiments examined whether taking the perspective of a political rival or opposing fan reduced WT effects. We also examined whether making deliberative (vs. intuitive‐based) forecasts was associated with lower WT effects. Online adult samples of U.S. citizens from Mechanical Turk and U.S. college students provided their preferences and forecasts for the U.S. presidential election (Experiments 1 and 2) and a sports competition outcome (Experiment 3). Critically, some participants received perspective taking prompts immediately before providing forecasts. First, results revealed reductions in WT effects when participants engaged in perspective taking. Interestingly, this effect only emerged when intuitive‐based forecasts were made first (Experiment 3). Second, intuitive‐based forecasts revealed stronger evidence of WT effects. Finally, we found that perspective taking and forming forecasts deliberately promoted a shift in focus away from preferences and toward a consideration of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the entities (i.e., candidates and teams). Theoretical implications for understanding WT effects and applied implications for developing interventions are discussed.

中文翻译：

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“希望就是期望”：观点采择和预测类型对一厢情愿的影响

当预测未来的结果时，人们倾向于相信他们想要发生的结果也有可能发生。尽管进行了许多尝试，但几乎没有系统性的因素被确定出能够持续，稳健地减少如意算盘（WT）的影响。以选举和体育赛事的结果为背景，进行了三个实验，考察了从政治对手或反对者的角度看是否减少了世界体育的影响。我们还研究了进行协商性（相对于直观性）预测是否与较低的WT影响相关。来自机械土耳其人和美国大学生的美国公民的在线成人样本提供了他们对美国总统选举（实验1和2）和体育竞赛结果（实验3）的偏好和预测。至关重要的是 一些参与者在提供预测之前立即收到观点提示。首先，研究结果表明，参与者进行观点拍摄时，WT效应降低了。有趣的是，这种效果只有在首先进行基于直观的预测时才会出现（实验3）。其次，基于直观的预测揭示了更强的WT效应证据。最后，我们发现，采取观点和形成预测是故意促使人们将重点从偏爱转向考虑实体（即候选人和团队）的相对优势和劣势。讨论了了解WT效应的理论意义以及对制定干预措施的应用意义。有趣的是，这种效果只有在首先进行基于直观的预测时才会出现（实验3）。其次，基于直观的预测揭示了更强的WT效应证据。最后，我们发现，采取观点和形成预测是故意促使人们将重点从偏爱转向考虑实体（即候选人和团队）的相对优势和劣势。讨论了了解WT效应的理论意义以及对制定干预措施的应用意义。有趣的是，这种效果只有在首先进行基于直观的预测时才会出现（实验3）。其次，基于直观的预测揭示了更强的WT效应证据。最后，我们发现，采取观点和形成预测是故意促使人们将重点从偏爱转向考虑实体（即候选人和团队）的相对优势和劣势。讨论了了解WT效应的理论意义以及对制定干预措施的应用意义。我们发现，采取观点和形成预测是故意促使人们将重点从偏爱转向考虑实体（即候选人和团队）的相对优势和劣势。讨论了了解WT效应的理论意义以及对制定干预措施的应用意义。我们发现，采取观点和形成预测是故意促使人们将重点从偏爱转向考虑实体（即候选人和团队）的相对优势和劣势。讨论了了解WT效应的理论意义以及对制定干预措施的应用意义。