URL: h Abstract In this study, we examined participants' choice behavior in a sequential risk‐taking task. Wewere especially interested in the extent to which participants focus on the immediate next choice or consider the entire choice sequence. To do so, we inspectedwhether decisions were either based on conditional probabilities (e.g., being successful on the immediate next trial) or on conjunctive probabilities (of being successful several times in a row). The results of five experiments with a simplified nine‐card Columbia Card Task and a CPT‐model analysis show that participants' choice behavior can be described best by a mixture of the two probability types. Specifically, for their first choice, the participants relied on conditional probabilities, whereas subsequent choices were based on conjunctive probabilities. This strategy occurred across different start conditions in which more or less cards were already presented face up. Consequently, the proportion of risky choices was substantially higher when participants started from a state with some cards facing up, compared with when they arrived at that state starting from the very beginning. The results, alternative accounts, and implications are discussed.

中文翻译：

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在顺序冒险任务中，选择是基于条件概率还是联合概率？

URL: h 摘要 在这项研究中，我们检查了参与者在连续冒险任务中的选择行为。我们对参与者专注于下一个选择或考虑整个选择序列的程度特别感兴趣。为此，我们检查了决策是基于条件概率（例如，在下一次试验中成功）还是基于联合概率（连续多次成功）。使用简化的九张哥伦比亚卡片任务和 CPT 模型分析的五个实验的结果表明，参与者的选择行为可以通过两种概率类型的混合来最好地描述。具体来说，对于他们的第一选择，参与者依赖于条件概率，而随后的选择则基于合取概率。这种策略发生在不同的开始条件下，其中或多或少的牌面朝上。因此，当参与者从一些卡片朝上的状态开始时，与他们从一开始就到达该状态时相比，风险选择的比例要高得多。讨论了结果、替代帐户和影响。