We examined how individuals and groups behave in making judgmental forecasts when they are given external forecast advice. We compare individual and group advice‐taking behavior under different conditions: (a) when advice quality is fixed, (b) when advice quality is randomly varied, and (c) when there is feedback on advice quality or not. Participants in Study 1 received fixed advice of either reasonable or unreasonable quality while making their decisions. Participants in Study 2 randomly received both reasonable and unreasonable advice. We found in both studies that groups feel more confident than individuals. This greater confidence decreased the groups' reliance on advice. We also found that groups are better than individuals at discerning the quality of advice. In the group treatment, the group's reliance on advice increased according to the degree of disagreement with the initial decisions of the group members. In Study 3, participants randomly received both reasonable and unreasonable advice, and in addition, they received feedback on actual realizations that enabled them to learn about the quality of advice. In the presence of feedback on random advice quality, groups are no longer less receptive to advice than individuals; with feedback, both individuals and groups discount advice more than they do without feedback. Nevertheless, groups are still better than individuals at discerning the quality of advice. We conclude that group forecasting is better than individual forecasting across various conditions that we investigate except when advice quality is known to be consistently reliable.

中文翻译：

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在判断性预测中采用个人和小组建议：小组预测是否优于个人预测？

我们研究了在获得外部预测建议时，个人和群体在做出判断性预测时的行为方式。我们比较了在不同条件下的个人和团体咨询行为：（a）咨询质量固定时；（b）咨询质量随机变化时；（c）咨询质量有无反馈时。研究1的参与者在做出决定时收到了质量合理或不合理的固定建议。研究2的参与者随机接受了合理和不合理的建议。我们在两项研究中都发现，群体比个人更自信。这种更大的信心减少了小组对建议的依赖。我们还发现，小组在识别建议质量方面比个人更好。在小组治疗中，小组 根据对小组成员最初决定的不同意见，对建议的依赖程度增加。在研究3中，参与者随机地收到了合理和不合理的建议，此外，他们还收到了有关实际实现的反馈，这使他们能够了解建议的质量。在存在关于随机建议质量的反馈的情况下，群体不再比个人更容易接受建议。有了反馈，个人和团体都会比没有反馈的情况更看重建议。但是，在识别建议质量方面，小组仍然比个人更好。我们得出结论，在已知的咨询质量始终可靠的情况下，在我们研究的各种条件下，群体预测要比个人预测更好。