Impacts of terminal velocity on precipitation prediction and the error representation of terminal velocity in ensemble forecasts,Atmospheric Science Letters

当前位置： X-MOL 学术 › Atmos. Sci. Lett. › 论文详情

Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)

Impacts of terminal velocity on precipitation prediction and the error representation of terminal velocity in ensemble forecasts
Atmospheric Science Letters ( IF 2.0 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-15 , DOI: 10.1002/asl.974
Shizhang Wang ₁ , Xiaoshi Qiao ₁

Affiliation

Impacts of terminal velocities (rainwater, snow, and hail) on precipitation and the representation of terminal velocity uncertainty in ensemble forecasts were discussed in several idealized scenarios differing in intercept parameters and environmental soundings. In this idealized case, the precipitation maximum and cold pool were sensitive to the rainwater terminal velocity, while the precipitation coverage was sensitive to terminal velocities of ice‐species. Although precipitation maximum approximately increased with terminal velocity, pronouncedly large terminal velocity may form a cold pool too weak for precipitation system development. The main finding for ensemble forecasts is that allowing for terminal velocity uncertainty in ensemble forecasts could benefit the precipitation forecast skill; using perturbations based on the terminal velocity bias of each species improved the forecast skill in more scenarios than using the same perturbation for all species.

中文翻译：

终极速度对降水预报的影响以及集合预报中终极速度的误差表示

在截距参数和环境探测不同的几种理想情况下，讨论了终端速度（雨水，雪和冰雹）对降水的影响以及集合预报中终端速度不确定性的表示。在这种理想情况下，最大降水量和冷池对雨水终极速度敏感，而降水覆盖率对冰种终极速度敏感。尽管最大降水量随终极速度而增加，但明显的大终极速度可能会形成一个冷池，对沉淀系统的发展而言太弱。集合预报的主要发现是，在集合预报中考虑终端速度的不确定性可以使降水预报技能受益。

更新日期：2020-04-15

点击分享查看原文

点击收藏

公开下载

阅读更多本刊最新论文本刊介绍/投稿指南11