As the development of the eight‐toothed spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is temperature‐dependent, climate change may encourage development of its additional generations per year and facilitate mass outbreaks further north than previously known. The aim of the study was to analyse historical changes in effective temperature sums (ETSs) and early season swarming weather for I. typographus in different forest zones of European Russia between 1960 and 2016. The difference in ETSs was analysed with linear regression using daily temperature data from the 30 meteorological stations. Historical data regarding the location of I. typographus outbreaks were examined and changes in their distribution during the entire study period were analysed. There was a substantial increase in ETSs, especially in the latter half of the study period. Increased ETSs coincided with more favourable conditions for swarming of I. typographus. Areas with favourable ETSs for the complete development of bivoltine populations of I. typographus (>1500 DD) shifted northwards on average 450 km during the entire study period. The northward shift of ETSs may enhance the transition from univoltine to bivoltine life cycles of I. typographus in the south and middle taiga and from bivoltine to trivoltine life cycles in conifer‐broadleaf forests.

中文翻译：

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温度总和等倾线的北移可能有利于俄罗斯欧洲地区的 Ips 印刷术爆发

由于八齿云杉树皮甲虫 Ips Typgraphus 的发育依赖于温度，气候变化可能会鼓励其每年增加几代的发育，并促进比以前已知的更北的大规模爆发。本研究的目的是分析 1960 年至 2016 年间俄罗斯欧洲不同林区的 I.typographus 的有效温度总和 (ETS) 和早期蜂群天气的历史变化。使用每日温度通过线性回归分析 ETS 的差异来自 30 个气象站的数据。审查了有关 I.typgraphus 爆发地点的历史数据，并分析了整个研究期间其分布的变化。ETS 大幅增加，尤其是在研究期间的后半段。增加的 ETS 恰逢更有利的条件，有利于 I. typegraphus 蜂拥而至。在整个研究期间，具有有利 ETS 的区域有利于 I. Typgraphus (>1500 DD) bivoltine 种群的完全发展，平均向北移动 450 公里。ETS 的北移可能会促进南针叶林和中针叶林的 I.typographus 从单叶向双叶生命周期的转变，以及针叶阔叶林从双叶向三叶的生命周期的转变。