One of the most challenging tasks in wildlife conservation and management is to clarify how spatial variation in land cover due to anthropogenic disturbance influences wildlife demography and long‐term viability. To evaluate this, we compared rates of survival and population growth by woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) from 2 study sites in northern Ontario, Canada that differed in the degree of anthropogenic disturbance because of commercial logging and road development, resulting in differences in predation risk due to gray wolves (Canis lupus). We used an individual‐based model for population viability analysis (PVA) that incorporated adaptive patterns of caribou movement in relation to predation risk and food availability to predict stochastic variation in rates of caribou survival. Field estimates of annual survival rates for adult female caribou in the unlogged ( 0.90) and logged ( 0.76) study sites recorded during 2010–2014 did not differ significantly (P > 0.05) from values predicted by the individual‐based PVA model (unlogged:  = 0.87; logged:  0.79). Outcomes from the individual‐based PVA model and a simpler stage‐structured matrix model suggest that substantial differences in adult survival largely due to wolf predation are likely to lead to long‐term decline of woodland caribou in the commercially logged landscape, whereas the unlogged landscape should be considerably more capable of sustaining caribou. Estimates of population growth rates (λ) for the 2010–2014 period differed little between the matrix model and the individual‐based PVA model for the unlogged (matrix model  = 1.01; individual‐based model  = 0.98) and logged landscape (matrix model  = 0.88; individual‐based model  = 0.89). We applied the spatially explicit PVA model to assess the viability of woodland caribou across 14 woodland caribou ranges in Ontario. Outcomes of these simulations suggest that woodland caribou ranges that have experienced significant levels of commercial forestry activities in the past had annual growth rates <0.89, whereas caribou ranges that had not experienced commercial forestry operations had population growth rates >0.96. These differences were strongly related to regional variation in wolf densities. Our results suggest that increased wolf predation risk due to anthropogenic disturbance is of sufficient magnitude to cause appreciable risk of population decline in woodland caribou in Ontario. © 2020 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society.

中文翻译：

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安大略林地驯鹿的人为干扰和种群生存力

野生动植物保护和管理中最具挑战性的任务之一是弄清由于人为干扰而造成的土地覆盖空间变化如何影响野生动植物的人口学和长期生存能力。为了对此进行评估，我们比较了加拿大安大略省北部2个研究地点的林地驯鹿（Rangifer tarandus caribou）的存活率和种群增长率，这些研究点由于商业伐木和道路发展而造成的人为干扰程度不同，从而导致捕食差异灰狼（犬狼疮）引起的危险）。我们使用基于个体的模型进行人口生存力分析（PVA），该模型结合了驯鹿运动与捕食风险和食物供应量相关的自适应模式，以预测驯鹿存活率的随机变化。 在2010–2014年间记录的未记录（ 0.90）和记录（0.76）研究地点的成年雌性北美驯鹿的年生存率的现场估计与 基于个体的PVA模型所预测的值（P > 0.05）没有显着差异（P > 0.05）。 = 0.87；已记录： 0.79）。基于个人的PVA模型和较简单的阶段结构矩阵模型的结果表明，主要由于狼的捕食而导致的成年存活率的实质性差异可能会导致商业砍伐林地的北美驯鹿长期减少，而未砍伐林地应该更有能力维持驯鹿。矩阵模型与未记录（矩阵模型 = 1.01；基于个体模型 = 0.98）和已记录景观（矩阵模型 = ）的矩阵模型与基于个人的PVA模型之间，2010-2014年期间的人口增长率估算值（λ）相差不大。0.88；基于个人的模型 = 0.89）。我们应用了空间明确的PVA模型来评估安大略省14个林地驯鹿范围内林地驯鹿的生存能力。这些模拟的结果表明，过去经历过大量商业林业活动的林地驯鹿山脉的年增长率<0.89，而没有经历过商业林业活动的北美驯鹿山脉的人口增长率> 0.96。这些差异与狼密度的区域差异密切相关。我们的结果表明，人为干扰引起的狼被捕食的风险增加到足以引起安大略省林地驯鹿人口下降的明显风险。©2020作者。该杂志野生动物管理 由Wiley Periodicals，Inc.代表野生动物协会出版。