Quantifying and interpreting the impacts that land use/cover change (LUCC) have on hydrology at basin scales are of great significance for the sustainable development of watershed ecosystems, water resources, and land management. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to establish the regional model. The Min River watershed was divided into 236 sub‐basins, and simulations showed the spatial distribution of runoff in each sub‐basin with GIS‐based image displays. We set five scenarios to investigate the negative hydrological effects characterized by reductions in the water yield. From 1995 to 2004, the effect of simulated mean annual runoff caused by LUCC was −12.61 m³/s and the climate variability caused −67.61 m³/s. From 2005 to 2014, the hydrological effect caused by LUCC was −2.38 m³/s and the climate variability caused −58.53 m³/s. The elevation, Shannon's diversity index, largest patch index, and interspersion and juxtaposition index were all characterized by strong relationships with the sub‐basin outlet flows (adjusted R² = 0.572) using multivariate stepwise regression analysis. Redundancy analysis further proved that the reduction in grassland has led to a decrease in vegetation dominance while large increase in cultivated and residential lands has led to a higher degree of landscape richness and fragmentation, which has caused the reduced water yield. The restoration of grassland vegetation, as well as urban and agricultural water usage should be the primary focus of flow recovery.

中文翻译：

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Min江流域土地利用/覆盖变化对径流的影响

在流域尺度上量化和解释土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）对水文学的影响对于流域生态系统，水资源和土地管理的可持续发展具有重要意义。使用了土壤和水评估工具来建立区域模型。Min江流域被划分为236个子流域，并通过基于GIS的图像显示模拟显示了每个子流域的径流空间分布。我们设定了五个方案来研究以水产量减少为特征的负面水文影响。从1995年到2004年，由LUCC引起的模拟年均径流量的影响为-12.61 m ³ / s，气候变化引起的为-67.61 m ³/ s。从2005年到2014年，LUCC引起的水文效应为-2.38 m ³ / s，气候变化引起的为-58.53 m ³ / s。海拔，香农的多样性指数，最大斑块指数，散布和并置指数的特征均与流域下流出口流量有很强的关系（调整后的R ²= 0.572），使用多元逐步回归分析。冗余分析进一步证明，草地的减少导致植被优势的减少，而耕地和居住地的大量增加导致景观的丰富度和破碎度更高，这导致水的产量减少。草地植被的恢复以及城市和农业用水将成为流量恢复的主要重点。