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Precursors of northeast monsoon rainfall variability during extreme epochs of the global warming era
Meteorological Applications ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-13 , DOI: 10.1002/met.1894 K. Prasanna 1 , P. Vinay Kumar 1 , C. V. Naidu 1
Meteorological Applications ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-13 , DOI: 10.1002/met.1894 K. Prasanna 1 , P. Vinay Kumar 1 , C. V. Naidu 1
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The smoothed time series of northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular (SP) India has revealed two extreme active epochs (1877–1887 and 2005–2015) and two extreme weak epochs (1899–1909 and 1980–1990) during 1871–2016. Only the recent two epochs 1980–1990 and 2005–2015 were chosen due to data constraints. For these two epochs, the distribution of zonal wind pattern at the 850 and 200 hPa levels, latent heat flux, vertical shear in the zonal wind between 850 and 200 hPa, sea surface temperature and outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) were studied. The vertical profile of zonal wind over the mean position of the subtropical westerly jet and the maximum wind reversal were also analysed. Further, the frequencies of dry days, little rainfall days (0–20 mm), moderate rainfall days (20–60 mm), heavy rainfall days (60–100 mm) and very heavy rainfall days (>100 mm) were evaluated. SP India has experienced active/weak monsoon conditions every one to two decades alternately. An active monsoon epoch shows a higher north–south temperature gradient over the Bay of Bengal than a weak monsoon epoch. An upper level subtropical westerly jet over north India, strong tropical easterlies in the lower troposphere and low vertical shear in the zonal wind over the Bay of Bengal were observed during the active epoch, which facilitates the transportation of good amounts of moisture to SP India. The low OLR values over SP India in the active monsoon epoch indicate more convective activity over that region. Enhanced rainfall activity over SP India in the active monsoon epoch is due to the enhanced frequency of very heavy, heavy, moderate and little rainfall events and the reduced frequency of dry days.
中文翻译：
全球变暖时代极端时期东北季风降水变化的前兆
印度南部半岛（SP）东北季风降雨的平滑时间序列揭示了1871-2016年期间的两个极端活跃时期（1877-1887和2005-2015）和两个极端弱时期（1899-1909和1980-1990）。由于数据限制，仅选择了最近的两个时期1980-1990和2005-2015。对于这两个时期，研究了850和200 hPa水平的纬向风分布，潜热通量，850和200 hPa之间的纬向风垂直切变，海面温度和长波辐射（OLR）。还分析了副热带西风急流平均位置上纬向风的垂直剖面和最大逆风。此外，干旱天，少雨天（0–20 mm），中雨天（20–60 mm）的频率，评估了大雨天（60–100 mm）和大雨天（> 100 mm）。SP India每隔一到二十年经历过活跃/弱季风天气。一个活跃的季风时期比一个较弱的季风时期显示出孟加拉湾上南北向的温度梯度更高。在活跃时期观测到印度北部上空的副热带西风急流，对流层下层强烈的热带东风和孟加拉湾上空的纬向风垂直切变低，这有利于向印度SP输送大量水分。在活跃的季风时期，印度SP的OLR值较低，表明该地区的对流活动较多。在活跃的季风时期，印度SP的降雨活动增强，这是由于极重，重，
更新日期：2020-03-13
中文翻译：
全球变暖时代极端时期东北季风降水变化的前兆
印度南部半岛（SP）东北季风降雨的平滑时间序列揭示了1871-2016年期间的两个极端活跃时期（1877-1887和2005-2015）和两个极端弱时期（1899-1909和1980-1990）。由于数据限制，仅选择了最近的两个时期1980-1990和2005-2015。对于这两个时期，研究了850和200 hPa水平的纬向风分布，潜热通量，850和200 hPa之间的纬向风垂直切变，海面温度和长波辐射（OLR）。还分析了副热带西风急流平均位置上纬向风的垂直剖面和最大逆风。此外，干旱天，少雨天（0–20 mm），中雨天（20–60 mm）的频率，评估了大雨天（60–100 mm）和大雨天（> 100 mm）。SP India每隔一到二十年经历过活跃/弱季风天气。一个活跃的季风时期比一个较弱的季风时期显示出孟加拉湾上南北向的温度梯度更高。在活跃时期观测到印度北部上空的副热带西风急流，对流层下层强烈的热带东风和孟加拉湾上空的纬向风垂直切变低，这有利于向印度SP输送大量水分。在活跃的季风时期，印度SP的OLR值较低，表明该地区的对流活动较多。在活跃的季风时期，印度SP的降雨活动增强，这是由于极重，重，
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