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On the linkage between extreme rainfall and the Madden–Julian Oscillation over the Indian region
Meteorological Applications ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-12 , DOI: 10.1002/met.1901 P. C. Anandh 1 , Naresh Krishna Vissa 1
Meteorological Applications ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-12 , DOI: 10.1002/met.1901 P. C. Anandh 1 , Naresh Krishna Vissa 1
Affiliation
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The relationship between extreme rainfall events (ERE) and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Indian Subcontinent is intriguing. In this regard, the study investigates in detail the association between the ERE and the MJO. Daily Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data were used for the period 1998–2015. The real‐time multivariate MJO index was applied to classify active and suppressed phases of the MJO. The percentile‐based threshold indices, change in probability, logistic regression models and composite analysis were used to understand the statistical and atmospheric circulation features. The results suggest that the frequency and rainfall contribution of the ERE were found to be higher during the active phases of the MJO across the seasons over the geographically distinct regions. The profound influence of the MJO on the ERE was found during the post‐monsoon over the southern Indian peninsula and Bay of Bengal regions. During the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), the prominent signals of the MJO are limited to the south of 20 ° N. The logistic regression and cumulative probability changes affirm the above results. The composite analysis of various diagnostic parameters reveals the background synoptic conditions during the post‐monsoon and the propagation of the Rossby convective lobe during the ISM might facilitate the occurrences of the ERE during the active phases of the MJO. The study highlights the space–time evolution of the ERE and the relative influence of the MJO across the seasons. Besides, its insights have practical implications for the understanding and prediction of sub‐seasonal rainfall extremes over the Indian Subcontinent.
中文翻译：
关于极端降雨与印度地区马登－朱利安涛动之间的联系
印度次大陆上的极端降雨事件（ERE）与Madden-Julian涛动（MJO）之间的关系令人着迷。在这方面，本研究详细研究了ERE和MJO之间的关联。使用1998-2015年期间的每日热带雨量测量任务（TRMM）数据。实时多元MJO指数用于分类MJO的活动和抑制阶段。基于百分位数的阈值指数，概率变化，逻辑回归模型和综合分析被用于了解统计和大气环流特征。结果表明，在地理上不同的地区，整个季节的MJO活动阶段，ERE的频率和降雨贡献较高。MJO对ERE的深远影响是在季风后的印度南部半岛和孟加拉湾地区发现的。在印度夏季风（ISM）期间，MJO的突出信号仅限于20°N以南。对数回归和累积概率变化证实了上述结果。对各种诊断参数的综合分析揭示了季风后的背景天气状况，而ISM期间Rossby对流瓣的传播可能有助于MJO活跃期ERE的发生。该研究强调了ERE的时空演变以及MJO在整个季节中的相对影响。除了，
更新日期：2020-03-12
中文翻译：
关于极端降雨与印度地区马登－朱利安涛动之间的联系
印度次大陆上的极端降雨事件（ERE）与Madden-Julian涛动（MJO）之间的关系令人着迷。在这方面，本研究详细研究了ERE和MJO之间的关联。使用1998-2015年期间的每日热带雨量测量任务（TRMM）数据。实时多元MJO指数用于分类MJO的活动和抑制阶段。基于百分位数的阈值指数，概率变化，逻辑回归模型和综合分析被用于了解统计和大气环流特征。结果表明，在地理上不同的地区，整个季节的MJO活动阶段，ERE的频率和降雨贡献较高。MJO对ERE的深远影响是在季风后的印度南部半岛和孟加拉湾地区发现的。在印度夏季风（ISM）期间，MJO的突出信号仅限于20°N以南。对数回归和累积概率变化证实了上述结果。对各种诊断参数的综合分析揭示了季风后的背景天气状况，而ISM期间Rossby对流瓣的传播可能有助于MJO活跃期ERE的发生。该研究强调了ERE的时空演变以及MJO在整个季节中的相对影响。除了，
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