This study aims to provide an assessment of total and sectoral CO₂ emissions of Iran using a macroeconomic climate analysis. It uses two quantitative approaches (i.e., energy–economy–environment indicators and econometric analysis) that complement each other. According to the latest accessible data (1971–2016), evidence shows that, first, the change in Iran's total primary energy supply can significantly explain the variation of CO₂ emissions in Iran, while energy intensity and CO₂ intensity cannot significantly explain its variability. Second, CO₂ emissions in Iran are increasing rapidly and the country is not moving toward the green economy situations. Third, the increase in energy intensity is mostly related to significant increases in energy consumption rather than increases in economic activity. This evidence shows that Iran's CO₂ intensity highly depends on the consumption of fossil fuels. Fourth, the econometric estimates suggest that CO₂ emissions, in comparison with other examined variables, change significantly in response to changes in per capita GDP, energy intensity, and carbon intensity. Fifth, the main contributors to industrial CO₂ emissions are industrial per capita GDP and energy and carbon intensities, while in the transport sectors, the main contributors are the number of vehicles, transport energy intensity, and carbon intensity. Sixth, further decomposition analysis shows the positive impact of per capita GDP and the negative impacts of energy structure and energy efficiency on total CO₂ emissions in Iran. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

中文翻译：

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伊朗绿色经济的二氧化碳排放评估

这项研究旨在使用宏观经济气候分析来评估伊朗的总和部门CO ₂排放量。它使用了两种相互补充的定量方法（即能源，经济，环境指标和计量经济分析）。根据最新的可获取数据（1971–2016年），证据表明，首先，伊朗一次能源总供应量的变化可以显着解释伊朗的CO ₂排放量变化，而能源强度和CO ₂强度却不能显着解释其变化率。 。二，CO ₂伊朗的排放量正在迅速增加，该国并未走向绿色经济形势。第三，能源强度的增加主要与能源消耗的显着增加有关，而不是与经济活动的增加有关。该证据表明，伊朗的CO ₂强度高度依赖于化石燃料的消耗。第四，计量经济学估算表明，与其他检验变量相比，CO ₂排放量会随着人均GDP，能源强度和碳强度的变化而发生显着变化。五，工业CO ₂的主要贡献者排放量是工业人均GDP以及能源和碳强度，而在运输部门，主要贡献因素是车辆数量，运输能量强度和碳强度。第六，进一步的分解分析显示了人均GDP的正面影响以及能源结构和能源效率对伊朗的CO ₂总排放量的负面影响。©2020年化学工业协会和John Wiley＆Sons，Ltd.