Illegal fishing is an acknowledged problem within no‐take areas (NTAs), which are frequently used as a marine conservation management tool. While gathering data on illegal fishing is difficult, it is necessary, as these data enable increased efficiency of compliance patrols, where resources are inherently limited. In particular, information about short‐term temporal variations in illegal fishing in NTAs is needed to guide management and compliance efforts. To address this knowledge gap, daily variations in illegal fishing effort were examined using surveillance cameras at two sites in New South Wales, Australia. Generalised linear modelling (GLM) identified that illegal fishing was significantly greater on non‐working days and during periods with no rain, light winds and slight seas. The GLM developed provided useful predictions of illegal activity in both the NTA used to build the model and in a second nearby NTA. The study demonstrated that illegal fishing was principally concentrated on days with good boating conditions and was greater at the study site closer to boat launching facilities. These insights will assist with future targeting of enforcement, community outreach and management efforts, which should focus on days and sites with an increased likelihood of illegal fishing.

中文翻译：

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禁捕区非法捕捞预测模型

非法捕鱼是禁捕区 (NTA) 内的一个公认问题，禁捕区经常被用作海洋保护管理工具。虽然收集有关非法捕鱼的数据很困难，但很有必要，因为这些数据可以提高合规巡逻的效率，而资源本来就有限。特别是，需要有关 NTA 中非法捕鱼的短期时间变化的信息来指导管理和合规工作。为解决这一知识差距，在澳大利亚新南威尔士州的两个地点使用监控摄像头检查了非法捕捞活动的日常变化。广义线性模型 (GLM) 发现，在非工作日和无雨、无微风和无海浪的时期，非法捕鱼明显增多。开发的 GLM 为用于构建模型的 NTA 和附近的第二个 NTA 中的非法活动提供了有用的预测。研究表明，非法捕捞主要集中在航行条件良好的日子，而且在靠近船只下水设施的研究地点更为严重。这些见解将有助于未来针对执法、社区外展和管理工作的目标，这些工作应侧重于非法捕鱼可能性增加的日子和地点。