Investigation of climate change impacts on food security has become a global hot spot. Even so, efforts to mitigate these issues in arid regions have been insufficient. Thus, in this paper, further research is discussed based on data obtained from various crop and climate models. Two DSSATcrop models (CMs) (CERESWheat and N-Wheat) were calibrated with two wheat cultivars (Gemiza9 and Misr1). A baseline simulation (1981-2010) was compared with different scenarios of simulations using three Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the 2030s, 2050s and 2080s. Probable impacts of climate change were assessed using the GCMs and CMs under the high emission Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). Results predicted decreased wheat grain yields by a mean of 8.7%, 11.4% and 13.2% in the 2030s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, relative to the baseline yield. Negative impacts of climatic change are probable, despite some uncertainties within the GCMs (i. e., 2.1%, 5.0% and 8.0%) and CMs (i.e., 2.2%, 6.0% and 9.2%). Changing the planting date with a scenario of plus or minus 5 or 10 days from the common practice was assessed as a potentially effective adaptation option, which may partially offset the negative impacts of climate change. Delaying the sowing date by 10 days (from 20 November to 30 November) proved the optimum scenario and decreased further reduction in wheat yields resulting from climate change to 5.2%, 6.8% and 8.5% in the 2030s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, compared with the 20 November scenario. The planting 5-days earlier scenario showed a decreased impact on climate change adaptation. However, the 10-days early planting scenario increased yield reduction under projected climate change. The cultivar Misr1 was more resistant to rising temperature than Gemiza9. Despite the negative impacts of projected climate change on wheat production, water use efficiency would slightly increase. The ensemble of multi-model estimated impacts and adaptation uncertainties of climate change can assist decision-makers in planning climate adaptation strategies.

调查气候变化对粮食安全的影响已成为全球热点。即便如此，减轻干旱地区这些问题的努力仍不足。因此，本文基于从各种作物和气候模型获得的数据讨论了进一步的研究。用两个小麦品种（Gemiza9和Misr1）校准了两个DSSATcrop模型（CMs）（CERESWheat和N-Wheat）。在2030年代，2050年代和2080年代，使用三种全球气候模型（GCM）将基线模拟（1981-2010）与不同的模拟情景进行了比较。在高排放代表性浓度途径（RCP8.5）下使用GCM和CM评估了气候变化的可能影响。结果预测，相对于基准产量，2030年代，2050年代和2080年代小麦籽粒单产分别降低8.7％，11.4％和13.2％。尽管GCM（即2.1％，5.0％和8.0％）和CM（即2.2％，6.0％和9.2％）存在一些不确定性，但气候变化可能会带来负面影响。评估将播种日期更改为距通常做法前后5天或10天的情景是一种潜在的有效适应方案，这可能部分抵消了气候变化的负面影响。将播种日期推迟10天（从11月20日到11月30日）证明了最佳的情况，并且与2030年代，2050年代和2080年代相比，气候变化导致的小麦单产进一步下降分别降至5.2％，6.8％和8.5％ 11月20日的情景。提前5天播种表明对气候变化适应的影响减小。然而，在预计的气候变化下，提前10天播种可增加单产。品种Misr1比Gemiza9更耐高温。尽管预计的气候变化将对小麦生产造成负面影响，但水分利用效率将略有提高。气候变化的多模型估计影响和适应不确定性的集合可以帮助决策者规划气候适应战略。