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SARS-CoV-2 will continue to circulate in the human population: an opinion from the point of view of the virus-host relationship.
Inflammation Research ( IF 6.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-30 , DOI: 10.1007/s00011-020-01352-y
Volodymyr V Oberemok 1 , Kateryna V Laikova 1 , Kseniya A Yurchenko 1 , Irina I Fomochkina 1 , Anatolii V Kubyshkin 1
Affiliation  

At the population level, the virus-host relationship is not set up to end with the complete elimination of either or both. Pathogen-resistant individuals will always remain in the host population. In turn, the virus can never completely eliminate the host population, because evolutionarily such an event is a dead end for the virus as an obligate intracellular parasite. A certain existential balance exists in the virus-host relationship. Against this backdrop, viral epidemics and pandemics only become manifest and egregious to human beings when tens and hundreds of thousands of people die and the question emerges what caused the high mortality peaks on the death chart. The answer seems clear; the emerging strain of the virus is new to the host population, and new mutations of the virus and natural selection will lead to a survival of only genetically resistant individuals in a host population. The dangers inherent to a novel virus are due to new features generally inthe molecular structure of proteins, which enable the virus to infect the cells of the host organism more intensively, dramatically challenging host immunity, and thus be transmitted more readily in the host population. In this article, we will concentrate on the facts currently available about severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which has caused COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic and try to predict its development and consequences based on the virus-host relationship. In fact, only two scenarios will occur simultaneously in the very near future: people who are genetically resistant to the virus will get sick, recover, and develop immunity, while people who are sensitive to the virus will need drugs and vaccines, which will have to be researched and developed if they are to recover. If the pandemic does not stop, in a few decades it is anticipated that SARS-CoV-2 will become as safe as the four non-severe acute respiratory syndrome human coronaviruses (HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-229E) currently circulating but causing low mortality in the human population.

中文翻译:

SARS-CoV-2 将继续在人群中传播:从病毒-宿主关系的角度来看。

在种群水平上,病毒与宿主之间的关系不会随着其中一个或两者的完全消除而告终。病原体抗性个体将始终留在宿主种群中。反过来,病毒永远无法完全消灭宿主种群,因为从进化上讲,这种事件对于病毒作为专性细胞内寄生虫而言是一条死胡同。病毒-宿​​主关系存在一定的生存平衡。在这种背景下,病毒流行和流行病只有在成千上万的人死亡时才变得明显和令人震惊,问题出现了是什么导致了死亡图表上的高死亡率峰值。答案似乎很清楚;新出现的病毒株对宿主人群来说是新的,病毒的新突变和自然选择将导致宿主种群中只有具有遗传抗性的个体才能存活。新型病毒固有的危险是由于蛋白质分子结构中的新特征,这使得病毒能够更强烈地感染宿主生物体的细胞,极大地挑战宿主免疫,因此更容易在宿主群体中传播。在本文中,我们将专注于目前关于导致 COVID-19(冠状病毒病 2019)大流行的严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 的事实,并尝试根据当前的情况预测其发展和后果。病毒-宿​​主关系。事实上,在不久的将来,只会同时发生两种情况:对病毒有基因抵抗力的人会生病、康复并产生免疫力,而对病毒敏感的人则需要药物和疫苗,如果他们要康复,就必须进行研究和开发。如果大流行不停止,预计几十年后 SARS-CoV-2 将变得与四种非严重急性呼吸综合征人类冠状病毒(HCoV-NL63、HCoV-HKU1、HCoV-OC43 和 HCoV)一样安全-229E) 目前正在流行,但在人群中造成低死亡率。
更新日期:2020-04-30
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