Owing to climate change, species’ geographical distribution may be extended, reduced or displaced in the future. Across species’ ranges, novel climate conditions may also expose species to thermal conditions for which they are not adapted. Migration toward more suitable climates will, however, only be possible if species are able to keep pace with climate change. Here, we analyze different metrics to predict the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Amazon primates. We found that this iconic group will be exposed to novel climate conditions in a large portion of their territories and most species might not be able to track their preferred environmental conditions, even when their range is forecasted to expand. Remaining future populations are expected to become fragmented and to occupy sub-optimal conditions at the periphery of their projected bioclimatic envelopes. Our results suggest that climate change may have unprecedented impacts on Amazon biodiversity, especially for species with low dispersal ability, such as primates. In addition to deforestation, hunting, and disease spread, climate change is likely to add up to conservation-defying feedbacks for Amazon primate populations’ fitness and resilience dynamics.

由于气候变化，物种的地理分布将来可能会扩大，减少或转移。在物种的整个范围内，新颖的气候条件也可能使物种面临无法适应它们的热条件。但是，只有在物种能够与气候变化保持同步的情况下，才有可能向更合适的气候迁移。在这里，我们分析了不同的指标，以预测气候变化对亚马逊灵长类动物分布的影响。我们发现，这个标志性群体将在其大部分地区暴露于新颖的气候条件，即使预测范围扩大，大多数物种也可能无法追踪其偏爱的环境条件。预计剩余的未来人口将变得支离破碎，并在其预计的生物气候覆盖范围的外围占据次优条件。我们的结果表明，气候变化可能会对亚马逊地区的生物多样性产生前所未有的影响，特别是对于那些具有低扩散能力的物种，例如灵长类动物。除了森林砍伐，狩猎和疾病蔓延之外，气候变化可能还会增加针对亚马逊灵长类动物种群适应性和适应力动态的违反保护规定的反馈。