Abstract Soybean-maize cropping system is highly dependent on climate condition, especially water deficit, across Brazil, affecting yield, food production and farmers profit. Based on that, the aim of this study was to evaluate the food production and economic viability for soybean and maize for single and soybean-maize off-season production system considering sowing dates, soil types and yield gaps in the Midwestern region. The yield was simulated using FAO-Zone agroecological model. Official yield statistics were used to validate the crop model and to estimate yield gap. We consider single soybean (SSc), single maize (SMc), and soybean-maize off-season systems (SMcs), simulating yield for 35 growing seasons (1981–2015) and six sowing dates (Oct. 01–Dec. 15 for single soybean and single maize; and Jan. 09–Mar. 26 for maize off-season, after soybean harvest). Total production was obtained in function of yield, yield gap, soil type and production intensity. Farmers profit was obtained based on net revenue using independent random function (5000 interactions) for yield, sales price and production costs. The SSc had the largest scenarios with positive net revenue, while SMcs had higher net revenue, reaching R$ 7400.00 ha−1, but with lowest risk for early sowing dates (soybean sowed in Oct. 01 and Oct. 15, and maize off-season in Jan. 09 and Jan. 24). The SMc had higher risk and lower food production in the region. The maximum gross energy production was 2663 billion MJ in SMcs sown soybean on Oct. 01. The SSc had a stable production of gross energy across the sowing dates, with values around 1900 billion MJ. The production of crude protein was similar among SMcs and SSc across sowing dates. The higher crude protein production occurred in the sowing date Oct. 15 for SMcs, with 33.9 billion kg, while SSc produced 32.9 billion kg. The highest net revenue was obtained for the SMcs in the early sowing dates. Nevertheless, the SMcs produced the highest amount of gross energy than single crop systems, but with a very similar crude protein level than SSc. Thus, farmers can be encouraged to grow SMcs to improve food production in early sowing dates. However, public incentive policies through insurance against water deficit can guarantee minimal economic returns and reduce production risks for maize off-season, especially when soybean was sowing late by delay at beginning of rain.

中文翻译：

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巴西中西部种植大豆 - 玉米种植系统的规则：粮食生产和经济利润

摘要 大豆-玉米种植系统高度依赖气候条件，尤其是巴西的缺水情况，影响产量、粮食生产和农民利润。在此基础上，本研究的目的是评估中西部地区考虑播种日期、土壤类型和产量差距的单一和大豆-玉米淡季生产系统中大豆和玉米的粮食生产和经济可行性。使用FAO-Zone 农业生态模型模拟产量。官方产量统计数据用于验证作物模型并估计产量差距。我们考虑单一大豆 (SSc)、单一玉米 (SMc) 和大豆-玉米淡季系统 (SMcs)，模拟 35 个生长季节（1981-2015 年）和六个播种日期（10 月 1 日至 12 月 15 日）的产量。单一大豆和单一玉米；以及 1 月 9 日至 3 月 26 日为玉米淡季，大豆收获后）。根据产量、产量差距、土壤类型和生产强度获得总产量。农民利润是基于净收入获得的，使用独立的随机函数（5000 次交互作用）计算产量、销售价格和生产成本。SSc 的情景最大，净收入为正，而 SMc 的净收入更高，达到 7400.00 ha-1 雷亚尔，但早期播种日期的风险最低（大豆在 10 月 1 日和 10 月 15 日播种，玉米在1 月 9 日和 1 月 24 日的季节）。SMc 在该地区具有较高的风险和较低的粮食产量。10 月 1 日 SMcs 播种的大豆的最大总能量产量为 26630 亿兆焦耳。 SSc 在整个播种日期的总能量产量稳定，价值约为 19000 亿兆焦耳。不同播种日期的 SMcs 和 SSc 的粗蛋白产量相似。SMcs 的粗蛋白产量在 10 月 15 日的播种日期较高，为 339 亿公斤，而 SSc 产量为 329 亿公斤。SMc 在早期播种日期获得了最高的净收入。尽管如此，与单一作物系统相比，SMcs 产生的总能量最高，但粗蛋白水平与 SSc 非常相似。因此，可以鼓励农民在播种早期种植 SMc 以提高粮食产量。然而，通过对缺水保险的公共激励政策可以保证最低的经济回报并降低玉米淡季的生产风险，特别是在大豆因雨季延迟播种而延迟播种的情况下。SMcs 排名第 15，为 339 亿公斤，而 SSc 则为 329 亿公斤。SMc 在早期播种日期获得了最高的净收入。尽管如此，与单一作物系统相比，SMcs 产生的总能量最高，但粗蛋白水平与 SSc 非常相似。因此，可以鼓励农民在播种早期种植 SMc 以提高粮食产量。然而，通过对缺水保险的公共激励政策可以保证最低的经济回报并降低玉米淡季的生产风险，特别是在大豆因雨季延迟播种而延迟播种的情况下。SMcs 排名第 15，为 339 亿公斤，而 SSc 则为 329 亿公斤。SMc 在早期播种日期获得了最高的净收入。尽管如此，与单一作物系统相比，SMcs 产生的总能量最高，但粗蛋白水平与 SSc 非常相似。因此，可以鼓励农民在播种早期种植 SMc 以提高粮食产量。然而，通过对缺水保险的公共激励政策可以保证最低的经济回报并降低玉米淡季的生产风险，特别是在大豆因雨季延迟播种而延迟播种的情况下。与单一作物系统相比，SMcs 产生的总能量最高，但粗蛋白水平与 SSc 非常相似。因此，可以鼓励农民在播种早期种植 SMc 以提高粮食产量。然而，通过对缺水保险的公共激励政策可以保证最低的经济回报并降低玉米淡季的生产风险，特别是在大豆因雨季延迟播种而延迟播种的情况下。与单一作物系统相比，SMcs 产生的总能量最高，但粗蛋白水平与 SSc 非常相似。因此，可以鼓励农民在播种早期种植 SMc 以提高粮食产量。然而，通过对缺水保险的公共激励政策可以保证最低的经济回报并降低玉米淡季的生产风险，特别是在大豆因雨季延迟播种而延迟播种的情况下。