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Estimating health risks in metal contaminated land for sustainable agriculture in peri-urban industrial areas using Monte Carlo probabilistic approach
Sustainable Computing: Informatics and Systems ( IF 4.5 ) Pub Date : 2019-02-05 , DOI: 10.1016/j.suscom.2019.01.012
Vivek Kumar Gaurav , Chhaya Sharma

Health risks associated with heavy metal contamination were characterized in the agriculture soil procured from the peri-urban areas of Saharanpur, India. The mean concentration of As, Cd, Cu, Pb, Cr and Ni were observed to be 14.50, 1.65, 35.82, 30.76, 60.70 and 89.63 mg/kg respectively. Statistical analysis was performed for the source apportionment of the metal in the study area. Health risk to adult and children population was estimated using the expression derived by USEPA. Non-carcinogenic health risk via ingestion, inhalation and dermal pathways was estimated by hazard quotient (HQ) and hazard index (HI), whereas Carcinogenic risk was estimated via inhalation pathway. HI combined (ingestion, dermal and inhalation) for both adult and children population exceeded the safe level (HI ≥ 1) for Cr (2.21). Cancer risk were observed within the admissible range (1E-06 to 1E-04). Monte Carlo simulation approach was applied for uncertainty analysis of estimated non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks by simulating the variables associated with risk estimation for 10,000 iterations.



中文翻译:

使用蒙特卡洛概率方法估算金属污染土地的健康风险,以进行城郊工业区的可持续农业

与重金属污染有关的健康风险的特征是从印度撒哈拉普尔郊区购得的农业土壤。砷,镉,铜,铅,铬和镍的平均浓度分别为14.50、1.65、35.82、30.76、60.70和89.63 mg / kg。对研究区域中金属的来源分配进行了统计分析。使用USEPA得出的表达式估算了成年人和儿童的健康风险。通过危险因子(HQ)和危险指数(HI)估计通过摄入,吸入和皮肤途径的非致癌健康风险,而通过吸入途径来估计致癌风险。成人和儿童的HI组合(摄入,皮肤和吸入)超过Cr的安全水平(HI≥1)(2.21)。在允许范围内(1E-06至1E-04)观察到癌症风险。通过模拟与10,000次迭代的风险估计相关的变量,将蒙特卡罗模拟方法用于估计的非致癌和致癌风险的不确定性分析。

更新日期:2019-02-05
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