Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity (ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country. The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI). We included a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition. The predisposition indicators corresponded well (AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect (mostly bark beetle) damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition (storm: >−11%, beetle: >−37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased (e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value. By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.

中文翻译：

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生态系统服务提供与干扰易感性之间的权衡：基于NFI的情景分析

评估管理对森林生态系统服务和生物多样性的长期供应和可持续性的影响的方案分析也需要考虑到干扰。这项研究的目的是在整个国家范围内揭示ESB提供与干扰倾向之间的潜在权衡和协同作用。在瑞士国家森林清单（NFI）的5086个样地上，经验情景模型MASSIMO用于模拟2016年至2106年的森林开发和管理。我们包括了一个照常营业（BAU）方案和四个增加采伐木材的方案。使用以下指标评估模型输出：1）提供ESB，包括a）木材生产，b）作为生物多样性代表的老龄森林特征； c）防止落石和雪崩； 2）a）风暴和b）树皮甲虫的易感性。在逻辑回归模型中，易感性指标与暴风雨和昆虫（主要是树皮甲虫）的破坏观测值非常吻合（AUC：0.71-0.86）。木材产量的增加通常伴随着易感性的降低（风暴：>-11％，甲虫：>-37％，取决于区域和情况），但在促进针叶树的情况下，甲虫的易感性有所增加（例如南部地区增加了61％）阿尔卑斯山）。在木材产量增加的情况下，干扰易感性降低，老龄森林指标降低，这表明存在权衡的情况。相反，在BAU的管理下，随着针叶树比例的减少，种群的增长也有所增加，导致甲虫的易感性降低，而这又伴随着老龄化森林指标的增加。在具有高雪崩和落石防护值的NFI地块中，干扰的倾向性升高。通过在全国范围内基于单棵树数据评估ESB和干扰易感性，我们弥合了详细的林分规模评估与全国范围内基于清单的更广泛方法之间的差距。我们讨论了指标框架的局限性，并提倡对未来的修订，包括对气候敏感的森林发展和扰动模型，以加强国家森林决策中的决策。在具有高雪崩和落石防护值的NFI地块中，干扰的倾向性升高。通过在全国范围内基于单棵树数据评估ESB和干扰易感性，我们弥合了详细的林分规模评估与全国范围内基于清单的更广泛方法之间的差距。我们讨论了指标框架的局限性，并提倡对未来的修订，包括对气候敏感的森林发展和扰动模型，以加强国家森林决策中的决策。在具有高雪崩和落石防护值的NFI地块中，干扰的倾向性升高。通过在全国范围内基于单棵树数据评估ESB和干扰易感性，我们弥合了详细的林分规模评估与全国范围内基于清单的更广泛方法之间的差距。我们讨论了指标框架的局限性，并提倡对未来的修订，包括对气候敏感的森林发展和扰动模型，以加强国家森林决策中的决策。