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The Impact of Economic Growth in Mortality Modelling for selected OECD countries
Journal of Forecasting ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-12 , DOI: 10.1002/for.2640
Lydia Dutton 1 , Athanasios A. Pantelous 2 , Malgorzata Seklecka 1, 3
Affiliation  

The health of a population is affected by social, environmental, and economic factors. Pension providers and consultants, insurance companies, government agencies and individuals in the developed world have a vested interest in understanding how the economic growth will impact on the life expectancy of their population. Therefore, changes in death rates may occur due to climate and economic changes. In this study, we extend a previous study into excess deaths as a result of climate change to also provide a comprehensive investigation of the impact of economic changes using annual female and male data for 5 developed OECD countries. We find that there is strong negative relationship between mortality index, and climate and economic proxies. This model shows to provide better fitting and forecasting results both for females and males, and for all countries studied.

中文翻译:

经济增长对选定经合组织国家死亡率建模的影响

人口的健康受到社会、环境和经济因素的影响。发达国家的养老金提供者和顾问、保险公司、政府机构和个人在了解经济增长将如何影响其人口的预期寿命方面有着既得利益。因此,死亡率可能会因气候和经济变化而发生变化。在这项研究中,我们将先前的研究扩展到气候变化导致的超额死亡,以使用 5 个发达的经合组织国家的年度女性和男性数据对经济变化的影响进行全面调查。我们发现死亡率指数与气候和经济代理之间存在很强的负相关关系。该模型显示为女性和男性提供更好的拟合和预测结果,
更新日期:2020-01-12
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