This paper focuses on the expectation formation process of professional forecasters by relying on survey data on forecasts regarding gross domestic product growth, consumer price index inflation and 3‐month interest rates for a broad set of countries. We examine the interrelation between macroeconomic forecasts and also the impact of uncertainty on forecasts by allowing for cross‐country interdependencies and time variation in the coefficients. We find that professional forecasts are often in line with the Taylor rule and identify significant expectation spillovers from monetary policy in the USA.

中文翻译：

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专业预报员的期望、一致性和国际溢出效应

本文通过对广泛国家的国内生产总值增长、消费者价格指数通胀和 3 个月利率预测的调查数据，重点关注专业预测者的预期形成过程。我们通过允许系数的跨国相互依赖性和时间变化来检查宏观经济预测之间的相互关系以及不确定性对预测的影响。我们发现专业预测通常符合泰勒规则，并确定美国货币政策的重大预期溢出效应。