Acorn production varies considerably among species, locations, and years with potential effects on populations of acorn‐consuming wildlife, oak (Quercus spp.) regeneration, and forest ecology. Methods to estimate annual acorn crop size include acorn‐trapping (quantitative) or visual surveys (indices or ranks). Forest managers need a tool for converting visual survey data to quantitative estimates of acorn yield within specific years and areas. I used 7 years (2006–2010, 2012, 2016) of visual acorn survey data with acorn trap data from the same individual trees of 5 common eastern oak species in the Pisgah National Forest, North Carolina, USA, to determine whether a known within‐year relationship between the proportion of oaks bearing acorns (PBA) and acorn density using trap data (PBA‐trap) could be used to predict quantitative (no. of acorns per oak), within‐year acorn crops using visual survey data (PBA‐visual). At the individual tree level, visually determined percent crown with acorns (PCA‐visual) and number of acorns/m² trap or per crown were correlated for all oak subgroups (species, subgenera, and all oaks combined). At the population level, mean PCA‐visual was correlated with the mean number of acorns/m² trap or per crown for black oak (Q. velutina). Both PBA‐visual and mean PCA‐visual, and PBA‐visual and PBA‐trap were correlated for all oak subgroups. At the population level, PBA‐visual was a strong predictor of the mean number of acorns/m² trap or per crown for most oak subgroups. Model results can be used as an index of crop size by comparing number of acorns/m² trap or per crown among years or applied to oak inventory data to quantitatively estimate annual acorn crop sizes at the stand level or landscape level. This method enables users to estimate and compare the number of acorns produced within specific years and landscapes, rather than rely on qualitative hard‐mast indices. Published 2020. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

中文翻译：

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使用视觉调查为南部阿巴拉契亚橡子年度产量建模

橡子的产量在物种，位置和年份之间存在很大差异，对食用橡子的野生橡树种群有潜在影响（栎属spp。）再生和森林生态。估算年度橡果作物大小的方法包括诱捕橡果（定量）或目视调查（指标或等级）。森林管理者需要一种工具，用于将视觉调查数据转换为特定年份和地区内橡子产量的定量估计。我使用了7年（2006–2010、2012、2016）的视觉橡子调查数据，以及来自美国北卡罗来纳州皮斯加国家森林中5种常见东部栎树的同一棵树的橡子陷阱数据，以确定是否已知使用陷阱数据（PBA-trap）的橡子橡树比例（PBA）与橡子密度之间的年关系可用于使用视觉调查数据（PBA）预测年内橡果作物的定量（每橡子的橡子数） -视觉）。在单个树级别，所有橡树亚组（物种，亚属和所有橡树的总和）相关联的^2个陷阱或每个树冠。在人口水平上，平均PCA视觉与黑橡树（Q. velutina）的橡子/ m ²陷阱或每个冠的平均数相关。所有橡树亚组的PBA视觉和平均PCA视觉，PBA视觉和PBA陷阱都相关。在人口水平上，PBA-visual是大多数橡树亚组平均橡子/ m ²陷阱或每个冠的平均预测数。通过比较橡子/ m ^2的数量，模型结果可以用作作物大小的指标每年捕获一次或每棵冠，或应用于橡树库存数据，以定量估算林分或景观水平的年度橡子作物尺寸。使用此方法，用户可以估计和比较在特定年份和地貌内生产的橡子的数量，而不必依靠定性的硬母材指数。出版于2020年。本文是美国政府的工作，在美国属于公共领域。