Conversion of grassland to cropland has been linked to many complex environmental challenges in natural resource systems. South Dakota is a mosaic of grasslands, wetlands, and cropland that has experienced tremendous land use change over the past 10 years and is expected to continue for the next 50 years. The rate of future conversion may vary greatly depending on economic, policy, and social factors. Land conversion influences cumulative erosion from arable soils which could impact hydrologic flow and water quality. Quantifying future changes for these three externalities is important to understand the possible long‐term consequences of grassland conversion. A system dynamics model was developed to address the dynamic complexity of these natural resource systems by capturing its structure and behavior and was able to adequately replicate historical changes in erosion, discharge, and total suspended solids from 1947 to 2012.

中文翻译：

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评估南达科他州草地转化后的侵蚀，水量和水质的空间景观尺度方法

草地向农田的转化与自然资源系统中许多复杂的环境挑战有关。南达科他州是草原，湿地和农田的拼接地，在过去10年中土地使用发生了巨大变化，预计将在未来50年内继续发生。未来的转换率可能会因经济，政策和社会因素而有很大差异。土地转化会影响耕地的累积侵蚀，这可能会影响水文流量和水质。量化这三个外部因素的未来变化对于了解草地转换的长期后果很重要。