The carbon emissions trading scheme combined with feed‐in tariff policy is viewed as a feasible policy mix to promote the energy system transferring to low or near‐ zero‐carbon emissions. To investigate the interaction between such policy mix and the diffusion of energy technologies, we establish a stochastic programming model to describe the technology choice between renewable and fossil energy technologies. The uncertain carbon price and “merit order” effect have been introduced in our model. The Kuhn‐Tucker Lagrangian is adopted to derive the model solution and we present several integrals of uncertain carbon prices to analyze the patterns of technologies diffusion, as well as how the electricity price be determined with “merit order” effect. With the model we demonstrated, in a deregulated electricity market with the uncertain carbon price, the diffusion of renewables follows an S‐shaped pattern that is related to the tariff and carbon price levels, and a negative electricity price is possible once the renewables come to dominate the entire market supply. Although there exists a choice related to the low‐carbon technology for the system planner, the room for such technology diffusion can be eliminated as the technology progress of renewables.

中文翻译：

---

不确定条件下能源技术扩散的动力学

碳排放权交易计划与上网电价政策相结合被认为是促进能源系统向低碳排放或接近零碳排放转变的可行政策组合。为了研究这种政策组合与能源技术的扩散之间的相互作用，我们建立了一个随机规划模型来描述可再生能源和化石能源技术之间的技术选择。我们的模型中引入了不确定的碳价和“功绩顺序”效应。采用Kuhn-Tucker Lagrangian得出模型解，我们提出了不确定碳价的几个积分来分析技术扩散的模式，以及如何通过“功绩顺序”效应确定电价。通过我们证明的模型，在碳价格不确定的电力市场放松管制的情况下，可再生能源的扩散遵循与关税和碳价水平相关的S形模式，一旦可再生能源成为整个市场供应的主导者，电力价格就有可能出现负值。尽管系统规划人员可以选择与低碳技术相关的技术，但是随着可再生能源技术的进步，这种技术传播的空间可以消除。