We investigate the economic feasibility of bioelectricity production from biomass in Malaysia and its impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and storage, agricultural prices, agricultural employment and deforestation. For this purpose, we develop a partial equilibrium model that projects agricultural prices, production, imports, exports, domestic consumption and land use in 5‐year increments between 2015 and 2065. Our results show that by 2030 biomass‐generated electricity can supply 36.5 per cent of the electricity generated in Malaysia, 16 times more than the 2016 electricity supply from biomass. Increased bioelectricity production from biomass will significantly reduce GHG emissions and will help Malaysia meet its commitment in the Paris Agreement to mitigate GHG emission by 45 per cent before 2030. Our modelling shows that biomass‐generated electricity creates a derived demand for waste biomass that expands the area of oil palm plantations. The expansion lowers agricultural prices, boosts agricultural employment and leads to some deforestation as landowners clear rainforest to plant oil palm trees. Nonetheless, the deforestation does not increase GHG emissions since GHG gains from bioelectricity significantly exceed GHG losses from deforestation.

中文翻译：

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马来西亚的生物电：经济可行性，环境和森林砍伐的影响

我们调查了马来西亚利用生物质生产生物电的经济可行性及其对温室气体（GHG）排放和存储，农产品价格，农业就业和森林砍伐的影响。为此，我们开发了一个局部均衡模型，该模型预测了2015年至2065年之间的农业价格，生产，进口，出口，国内消费和土地使用，以5年为增量。我们的结果表明，到2030年，生物质发电可以提供36.5％的电力。马来西亚发电量的百分之一，是2016年生物质发电量的16倍。生物质能发电量的增加将大大减少温室气体的排放，并将帮助马来西亚履行其在《巴黎协定》中所作的承诺，即在2030年前将温室气体排放减少45％。我们的模型显示，生物质发电会产生对废生物质的衍生需求，从而扩大油棕种植园的面积。随着土地所有者清理雨林以种植油棕树，这种扩张降低了农产品价格，增加了农业就业并导致了一些森林砍伐。但是，砍伐森林不会增加温室气体的排放，因为生物电所产生的温室气体收益大大超过了森林砍伐所造成的温室气体损失。