Where data and information are lacking, structured expert risk assessments can provide a powerful tool to progress natural resource planning. In many situations, practitioners make informal assessments of risk within small groups that typically constitute employees. In this study, we report on three small (in terms of experts) structured expert‐based risk assessment case studies conducted by expert employees of a not‐for‐profit organisation (Australian Wildlife Conservancy) to demonstrate the utility of the approach. The case studies were carried out for three wildlife sanctuaries managed by AWC: Faure Island, Karakamia and Paruna. The likelihood that a set of direct risk factors would cause management failure for sets of important wildlife elements in the three sanctuaries was elicited from the small group of ecological experts. The analysis was couched in terms of a management aim to not lose species from each wildlife element over the management period of 25 years with current management. The experts believed, in particular, that increasing temperature and decreasing water availability associated with climate change were likely to impact significantly upon the vegetation elements and water‐reliant fauna associated with the sanctuaries. Some vegetation elements were also thought likely to be at risk of over‐grazing, unsuitable fire regimes and, in some cases, disease. In addition to predation by exotic predators at one sanctuary, the experts identified additional direct risk factors for various fauna elements associated with expected changes to the vegetation elements, including reduction in food availability, nesting habitat, and generally important life media. From the risk analyses, a preliminary conceptual model was developed to underpin monitoring and to indicate areas for possible management intervention and research. The case studies demonstrate that even in a small workplace team, structured risk assessments can be efficiently accomplished and can provide expedient and transparent information that effectively captures and aggregates the views of the experts.

中文翻译：

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对三个澳大利亚野生动物保护区中重要野生动植物元素的风险进行结构分析

在缺乏数据和信息的情况下，结构化的专家风险评估可以为进行自然资源规划提供强大的工具。在许多情况下，从业人员对通常由员工组成的小组进行风险非正式评估。在本研究中，我们报告了一个由非营利组织（澳大利亚野生动物保护组织）的专家雇员进行的三项小型（就专家而言）基于专家的结构化风险评估案例研究，以证明该方法的实用性。案例研究是由AWC管理的三个野生动物保护区进行的：Faure岛，Karakamia和Paruna。一小组生态专家认为，一组直接风险因素可能导致三个保护区中的重要野生动植物要素的管理失败。分析的依据是管理目标，即在现有管理下的25年管理期内，不要从每个野生动植物元素中损失物种。专家尤其认为，与气候变化相关的温度升高和水供应减少可能会对与该庇护所有关的植被要素和依赖水的动物群产生重大影响。还认为某些植被元素可能面临过度放牧，不适当的火灾以及某些情况下的疾病风险。除了在一个庇护所中由外来捕食者捕食外，专家们还发现了与植被要素的预期变化相关的各种动物要素的其他直接风险因素，包括食物供应的减少，筑巢的栖息地以及通常重要的生命介质。通过风险分析，开发了一个初步的概念模型来支持监控并指出可能的管理干预和研究领域。案例研究表明，即使在规模较小的工作团队中，也可以有效地完成结构化的风险评估，并且可以提供便捷，透明的信息，从而有效地收集和汇总专家的意见。