ABSTRACT Environmental risk assessments are routinely carried out in the Norwegian petroleum industry. As this industry is moving north, towards the Arctic and into areas with differing vulnerabilities and new risk sources compared to the now well-developed areas, previous operational experience and analytical practice may become less relevant. Reflecting the lack of knowledge (i.e. the uncertainty) that exists, and the strength of the available knowledge, then becomes critical. In the present paper, we review and discuss the industry guideline that for a long time has formed the methodological basis for these assessments, focusing on its foundation concerning risk and uncertainty. We conclude that there is a potential for improvement, and to contribute to improving the guideline, we describe how to implement – in the context of environmental risk assessment – a framework for conceptualising risk and its description that is consistent with the new uncertainty-based risk perspective recently adopted by the Petroleum Safety Authority Norway and in the Society for Risk Analysis glossary. The implementation includes a description and exemplification of a method for assessing the bias of uncertain risk assessment assumptions.

中文翻译：

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在环境风险评估的背景下实施基于不确定性的风险概念化，强调不确定假设的偏差

摘要 挪威石油工业经常进行环境风险评估。随着该行业向北移动，向北极移动，并进入与现在发达地区相比具有不同脆弱性和新风险源的地区，以前的运营经验和分析实践可能变得不那么重要。反映现有知识的缺乏（即不确定性）和可用知识的强度，则变得至关重要。在本文中，我们回顾和讨论长期以来形成这些评估方法论基础的行业指南，重点关注其关于风险和不确定性的基础。我们得出结论认为存在改进的潜力，并有助于改进指南，我们描述了如何在环境风险评估的背景下实施一个概念化风险及其描述的框架，该框架与挪威石油安全局和风险分析协会最近采用的新的基于不确定性的风险观点一致。实施包括对评估不确定风险评估假设偏差的方法的描述和示例。