Abstract

This paper is concerned with results from ongoing work using the method of long-term earthquake prediction (LTEP) for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc based on the seismic gap and seismic cycle patterns. We highlight the most important lines of research in the LTEP method during the preceding decade. A long-term forecast is provided using the basic method for the next 5 years, June 2019 through May 2024, for the most active part of the earthquake-generating zone in the region. The 20 segments of that zone have forecasts for the next 5 years, including the phases of the seismic cycle, the normalized rate of low-magnitude earthquakes (А₁₀), the magnitudes of moderate-size earthquakes that are expected to occur with probabilities of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, the maximum expected magnitudes and probabilities of great (М ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. This study continues the well-known work of S.A. Fedotov by examining space–time features of the regional seismic process for the period beginning 2017, including the great Near Islands (Aleutian) earthquake of July 17, 2017, M = 7.7. The results, as obtained here, corroborate a close relationship between the seismic process occurring in the segments that pose the highest earthquake hazard according to the LTEP and the great earthquakes in the region itself and in the adjacent seismic areas, as well as emphasizing a very high earthquake hazard for several areas at the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc; Thus it is necessary to continue and expand the ongoing work in earthquake strengthening and enhancing the level of seismic safety in those areas under the highest hazard, including the administrative center of Kamchatka Krai, the town of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.

中文翻译：

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2019年6月至2024年5月，对千岛至堪察加岛弧线的长期地震预报（LTEP）；2017年1月至2019年5月的地震活动特征。LTEP方法的发展与实际应用

摘要

本文关注的是使用基于地震缝隙和地震周期模式的千岛—堪察加岛弧长期地震预测（LTEP）方法正在进行的工作的结果。我们重点介绍了过去十年中LTEP方法中最重要的研究领域。对于该地区地震发生区最活跃的部分，将使用基本方法对2019年6月至2024年5月的未来5年进行长期预测。该区域的20个段具有用于未来5年的预测，包括地震周期，低级地震（А的归一化速率的相位₁₀），中等规模地震被预期与概率发生的大小0.8、0.5和0.15，则最大预期强度和概率为М≥7.7）地震。本研究通过检查区域地震过程的时空特性为开始2017年期间，包括2017年7月17日，伟大近群岛（阿留申）地震持续SA费多托夫的知名作品中号= 7.7。此处获得的结果证实了在根据LTEP构成最高地震危险的区段中发生的地震过程与该地区本身和邻近地震区的大地震之间的密切关系，并强调了千岛—堪察加半岛弧线上几个地区的地震危险性很高；因此，有必要继续和扩大正在进行的地震加固工作，并在那些危险最高的地区，包括彼得罗巴甫洛夫斯克-堪察加镇，堪察加边疆区行政中心，提高地震安全水平。