Abstract For the past 30 years, the M8 medium-term earthquake prediction algorithm has been applied globally every six months in real time for identifying the areas where the world’s strongest earthquakes are most likely to occur. As of now, the statistics of the outcomes observed in the Global Test with a confidence exceeding 99% indicates fairly high efficiency of the forecasts based on the M8 algorithm and those based on its combination with the MSc algorithm which more accurately localizes the focal zone of the expected earthquake. Thus, the null hypothesis of random occurrence in seismically active areas is rejected with seismologically certainty at least for the world’s strongest earthquakes in the magnitude ranges 8.0+ and 7.5+. The results of this experimental testing indirectly confirm the predictability of the strong earthquakes and the existence of both the common dynamic characteristics and diverse behavior during phase transitions in a complex hierarchical nonlinear fault-and-block system in the Earth’s lithosphere.

中文翻译：

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世界上最大地震发生概率增加的时间：30 年的实时假设检验

摘要 近30年来，M8中期地震预测算法每六个月在全球实时应用一次，用于识别世界上最有可能发生最强地震的地区。截至目前，在全局测试中观察到的结果的统计数据具有超过 99% 的置信度，表明基于 M8 算法的预测以及基于其与更准确定位焦点区域的 MSc 算法相结合的预测的效率相当高。预期的地震。因此，至少对于震级范围为 8.0+ 和 7.5+ 的世界上最强地震，地震活动区随机发生的零假设在地震学上是肯定的。