Modelling and forecasting of air pollution from bushfires or hazardous reduction burnings is important in providing information and allowing measures to be taken to reduce the exposure of people from harmful effect of air pollutants from fire events. In this work, the meteorological, chemical transport model and air quality models developed by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation of Australia are used in conjunction with the smoke emission model to simulate the formation and dispersion of particle aerosols (PM_2.5) in the Greater Metropolitan Region of Sydney as the results of emission of different pollutant species from hazardous reduction burnings or from bushfires. The smoke emission model is based on a fire model describing two distinct fire behaviours: flaming and smothering. There are several schemes that can be used to estimate the emission factors of different emitted species from fire of various vegetation types. A comparison of these schemes is performed by comparing the air quality model output from air quality model with observation from monitoring stations in a case study, the May 2016 prescribed burning winter period, which caused elevated particle concentrations in the Sydney basin. The PM_2.5 prediction over the Greater Metropolitan Region of Sydney from the forecasting modelling tool will then be used to calculate the population exposure and health impacts due to the May 2016 fire event as a case study. The three main health endpoints considered for health impacts are mortality, respiratory-related and cardiovascular hospitalisations. The results are comparable with other studies using non-modelling methods of determining the exposure and health impacts on this event.

为提供信息并采取措施减少人们受到火灾造成的空气污染物有害影响的影响，对森林大火或危险性降低燃烧所致空气污染的建模和预测很重要。在这项工作中，由澳大利亚联邦科学和工业研究组织开发的气象，化学运输模型和空气质量模型与烟雾排放模型一起用于模拟颗粒气溶胶的形成和扩散（PM _2.5）。）在悉尼大都市区，这是由于危险性降低燃烧或丛林大火排放不同污染物种类的结果。烟雾排放模型基于描述了两种不同的火灾行为的火焰模型：燃烧和窒息。可以使用几种方案来估计来自各种植被类型的火的不同排放物种的排放因子。这些方案的比较是通过将空气质量模型的空气质量模型输出与监测站的观测结果进行比较，该案例研究是2016年5月规定的燃烧冬季，导致悉尼盆地的颗粒物浓度升高。PM _2.5然后，将使用预测建模工具对悉尼大都市区的预测进行计算，以作为案例研究，计算2016年5月火灾造成的人口暴露和健康影响。考虑到对健康有影响的三个主要健康终点是死亡率，呼吸系统疾病和心血管疾病住院。该结果与其他使用非模型方法确定该事件的暴露和健康影响的研究相当。