Abstract Regular revisions of the classification of diseases and the consequent disruptions of mortality series are well-known issues in long-term cause-of-death analysis. Given basic assumptions and medical knowledge about possible exchanges across causes of death in the revision years, redistribution of counts of causes of death into a new classification can be viewed as a constrained optimization problem. Penalized likelihood within a quadratic programming framework allows estimation of exchanges that vary smoothly over age groups. The approach is illustrated using both German data on malignant neoplasms and French data on heart diseases.

中文翻译：

---

估计转换系数以重建死因连贯的死亡率序列

摘要 疾病分类的定期修订以及随之而来的死亡率序列的中断是长期死因分析中的众所周知的问题。考虑到修订年份中关于死因之间可能交换的基本假设和医学知识，将死因计数重新分配到新分类中可以被视为一个约束优化问题。二次规划框架内的惩罚可能性允许估计随年龄组平滑变化的交流。使用德国的恶性肿瘤数据和法国的心脏病数据说明了该方法。