Following the price hikes of 2007–2008 and 2010–2011, many governments in low-income countries implemented food export bans. While several studies investigate the macroeconomic impacts of such bans on large net exporters of grains, only very few country case studies have examined the economy-wide and distributional effects combined. Further, there is a lack of rigorous studies that explicitly analyse cereal export bans as policy responses to external price shocks and their net combined effects, both in the immediate and in the short run. This article evaluates this situation for the case of Ethiopia, a net food-importing country. We find that international price shocks not only do affect domestic prices but could also considerably suppress domestic food production and supplies. A cereal export ban can help stabilize domestic food prices but cannot fully erase the price hike. We, however, note that the ban further discourages domestic cereal production and reduces rural households’ welfare.

中文翻译：

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食品价格飙升：谷物出口禁令是埃塞俄比亚的正确反应吗？

在 2007-2008 年和 2010-2011 年价格上涨之后，低收入国家的许多政府实施了食品出口禁令。虽然有几项研究调查了此类禁令对大型谷物净出口国的宏观经济影响，但只有极少数国家案例研究考察了整个经济和分配的综合影响。此外，缺乏严格的研究来明确分析谷物出口禁令作为对外部价格冲击的政策反应及其近期和短期的净综合影响。本文以粮食净进口国埃塞俄比亚为例，评估了这种情况。我们发现，国际价格冲击不仅会影响国内价格，还会大大抑制国内粮食生产和供应。谷物出口禁令有助于稳定国内食品价格，但不能完全消除价格上涨。然而，我们注意到禁令进一步阻碍了国内谷物生产并降低了农村家庭的福利。