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Prediction of intensity and location of seismic events using deep learning
Spatial Statistics ( IF 2.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-14 , DOI: 10.1016/j.spasta.2020.100442
Orietta Nicolis , Francisco Plaza , Rodrigo Salas

The object of this work is to predict the seismic rate in Chile by using two Deep Neural Network (DNN) architectures, Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). For this, we propose a methodology based on a three-module approach: a pre-processing module, a spatial and temporal estimation module, and a prediction module. The first module considers the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model for estimating the intensity function, which will be used for estimating the seismic rate on a 1 × 1 degree grid providing a sequence of daily images covering all the seismic area of Chile. The spatial and temporal estimation module uses the LSTM and CNN for predicting the intensity and the location of earthquakes. The last model integrates the information provided by the DNNs for predicting future values of the maximum seismic rate and their location. In particular, the LSTM will be trained using the maximum intensity of the last 30 days as input for predicting the maximum intensity of the next day, and the CNN will be trained on the last 30 images provided by the application of the ETAS model for predicting the probability that the next day the maximum event will be in certain area of Chile. Some performance indexes (such as R2 and accuracy) will be used for validating the proposed models.



中文翻译:

使用深度学习预测地震事件的强度和位置

这项工作的目的是通过使用两种深度神经网络(DNN)架构,长期短期记忆(LSTM)和卷积神经网络(CNN)来预测智利的地震发生率。为此,我们提出了一种基于三模块方法的方法:预处理模块,空间和时间估计模块以及预测模块。第一个模块考虑了用于估计强度函数的流行型余震序列(ETAS)模型,该模型将用于估算1×1度网格上的地震速率,提供覆盖智利所有地震区域的每日图像序列。时空估计模块使用LSTM和CNN预测地震的烈度和位置。最后一个模型集成了DNN提供的信息,以预测最大地震率及其位置的未来值。特别是,LSTM将使用最近30天的最大强度作为预测第二天的最大强度的输入进行训练,而CNN将基于ETAS模型的应用提供的最近30张图像进行训练第二天最大事件发生在智利某些地区的概率。一些性能指标(例如 CNN将使用ETAS模型提供的最后30张图像进行训练,以预测第二天最大事件发生在智利某些地区的概率。一些性能指标(例如 CNN将使用ETAS模型提供的最后30张图像进行训练,以预测第二天最大事件发生在智利某些地区的概率。一些性能指标(例如[R2 和准确性)将用于验证建议的模型。

更新日期:2020-04-14
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