Due to climate change and human activity, wildfires are expected to become more frequent and extreme worldwide, causing economic and ecological disasters. The deployment of preventive measures and operational forecasts can be aided by stochastic modeling that helps to understand and quantify the mechanisms governing the occurrence intensity. We here develop a point process framework for wildfire ignition points observed in the French Mediterranean basin since 1995, and we fit a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process with monthly temporal resolution in a Bayesian framework using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). Human activity is the main direct cause of wildfires and is indirectly measured through a number of appropriately defined proxies related to land-use covariates (urbanization, road network) in our approach, and we further integrate covariates of climatic and environmental conditions to explain wildfire occurrences. We include spatial random effects with Matérn covariance and temporal autoregression at yearly resolution. Two major methodological challenges are tackled : first, handling and unifying multi-scale structures in data is achieved through computer-intensive preprocessing steps with GIS software and kriging techniques; second, INLA-based estimation with high-dimensional response vectors and latent models is facilitated through intra-year subsampling, taking into account the occurrence structure of wildfires.

由于气候变化和人类活动，预计全球范围内的野火将会更加频繁和极端化，从而造成经济和生态灾难。随机模型可以帮助预防措施和操作预测的部署，该模型有助于理解和量化控制事件发生强度的机制。我们从1995年开始就在法国地中海盆地观察到的野火点火点建立点过程框架，并使用集成的嵌套拉普拉斯近似（INLA）将时空对数高斯Cox过程与每月时间分辨率拟合在贝叶斯框架中。人类活动是造成野火的主要直接原因，在我们的研究方法中，人类活动是通过与土地利用协变量（城市化，路网）相关的许多适当定义的代理间接衡量的，并且我们进一步整合气候和环境条件的协变量来解释野火的发生。我们以年分辨率将空间随机效应与Matérn协方差和时间自回归一起包括在内。解决了两个主要的方法挑战：首先，通过使用GIS软件和kriging技术的计算机密集型预处理步骤来实现数据的多尺度结构的处理和统一。第二，考虑到野火的发生结构，通过年内二次抽样可以促进具有高维响应矢量和潜在模型的基于INLA的估计。解决了两个主要的方法挑战：首先，通过使用GIS软件和kriging技术的计算机密集型预处理步骤来实现数据的多尺度结构的处理和统一。第二，考虑到野火的发生结构，通过年内二次抽样可以促进具有高维响应矢量和潜在模型的基于INLA的估计。解决了两个主要的方法挑战：首先，通过使用GIS软件和kriging技术的计算机密集型预处理步骤来实现数据的多尺度结构的处理和统一。第二，考虑到野火的发生结构，通过年内二次抽样可以促进具有高维响应矢量和潜在模型的基于INLA的估计。