Abstract In this study, long-term change of wind characteristics on the Black Sea has been investigated using two widely used data sources, i.e., European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP/CFSR), spanning 40 years between 1979 and 2018. Spatial and seasonal variability of climatic features such as the wind speed, direction, number and duration of storms, and wind power density are discussed. Wind climate is characterized by strong, durable and stable winds in the northern and western Black Sea, and relatively weak, short-lived and highly-variable winds in the eastern Black Sea. These long-term wind patterns indicate that the eastern part of the basin is likely to be subjected to the impacts of climate change. Long-term stable and strong wind conditions in the southwest part indicate reliable, persistent and sustainable wind energy potential. Long-term and seasonal variation of wind power density (WPD) at 110 m altitude over the Black Sea is investigated. There is a significant difference in WPD values between winter and summer seasons, with around 2.8 times larger WPD in winter than that in summer. In the western Black Sea, narrow confidence intervals observed in each season indicate a low level of variation during a season and ensures stable wind power conditions.

中文翻译：

---

黑海极端风特征的长期时空趋势

摘要 在这项研究中，使用两个广泛使用的数据源，即欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ECMWF) ERA-Interim 和国家环境预测/气候中心，研究了黑海风特征的长期变化。预测系统再分析 (NCEP/CFSR)，跨越 1979 年至 2018 年的 40 年。讨论了气候特征的空间和季节变化，例如风速、风向、风暴的数量和持续时间以及风功率密度。风气候特点是黑海北部和西部风强、持久、稳定，黑海东部风相对弱、短时、多变。这些长期的风向表明盆地东部很可能受到气候变化的影响。西南地区长期稳定的强风条件表明风能潜力可靠、持久和可持续。研究了黑海 110 m 海拔处风功率密度 (WPD) 的长期和季节性变化。冬季和夏季的 WPD 值存在显着差异，冬季 WPD 约为夏季的 2.8 倍。在黑海西部，每个季节观察到的狭窄置信区间表明一个季节的变化水平较低，并确保稳定的风力条件。冬季和夏季的 WPD 值存在显着差异，冬季 WPD 约为夏季的 2.8 倍。在黑海西部，每个季节观察到的狭窄置信区间表明一个季节的变化水平较低，并确保稳定的风力条件。冬季和夏季的 WPD 值存在显着差异，冬季 WPD 约为夏季的 2.8 倍。在黑海西部，每个季节观察到的狭窄置信区间表明一个季节的变化水平较低，并确保稳定的风力条件。